But the historical momentum of the two majors can now be dissipated.
Suppose you wanted to support Laura Wells, of the Green Party, for CA governor. Could she have a viable candidacy under the new Prop 14 rules? Or, would Big Money simply buy the whole election as pessimists like Ralph Nader predict?
Under Prop 14, she would have no advantages for getting on the ballot just because she is in a qualified party, because the law has taken away those advantages. Each individual candidate will have to meet the same signature requirements, no matter what party, or no party. Assuming that something like 25,000 valid signatures would be required for a person to be on the primary ballot as a candidate for governor, Wells could surely meet that goal.
What are the indications of that likelihood? First, in the 2010 primary, the Greens received 22K votes, and Wells got 17.5K of those.* Therein lies the bulk of her needed signatures under Prop 14. Secondly, there are a lot of progressives who registered Dem under the old system, but who would sign a petition to put Wells on the primary ballot in the new system.
Third, among the 3M+ independents who were excluded from primaries in the past, there are surely thousands of people who would support Wells in getting on the primary ballot.
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