Andrew Flowers, writing at the FiveThirtyEight polling analysis site in Might Chinese Trade Explain Trump's Success?
"Recent research has indicated that trade with China has been more disruptive than previously thought. MIT economist David Autor and co-authors have documented how rising Chinese imports wreaked havoc on competing U.S. industries. In total, their research found the surge of Chinese trade was responsible for the loss of more than 2 million jobs between 1999 and 2011. But, interestingly -- and this is where Trump's electoral map comes in -- it had a concentrated geographic impact. States in the Midwest, Appalachia and the Southeast were where Chinese trade hit hardest. Take a look at these maps showing where the U.S. industries were most exposed"
Click through to see the maps. Flowers then explains, "At first look, this map sort of overlaps with Trump's success. He has won or is currently leading in several manufacturing-heavy Midwestern states; anti-trade sentiment is rife there."
Exit polling drives this home. CNN's exit polls, for example, tell the story:
"Rust belt states agree with Trump that trade costs jobs
"Donald Trump made trade a key message in his campaign. He promised to bring back the manufacturing jobs that he said were lost to trade deals.
"Large shares of voters in key rust belt states key to Hillary Clinton's electoral map agreed with Trump's view that trade agreements have hurt American workers. And they overwhelmingly supported the billionaire businessman at the ballot box.
"Half of Michigan's electorate feel trade takes away jobs, and these folks supported Trump by a 57% to 36% split. The 31% who think it creates jobs backed Clinton by a 65% to 31% margin.
"In Ohio, 47% of voters say trade hurts workers, and they lined up for Trump by a more than 2-to-1 margin. The 46% who say it creates jobs or has no effect strongly backed Clinton.
"And in Pennsylvania, 53% of the electorate agree that trade is bad for jobs. Some 62% supported Trump, while 34% backed Clinton. Among the 35% who feel trade is a job creator, Clinton was the favored candidate by more than a 2-to-1 margin."
Trump Talked Trade From The First Day To The Last
Trump saw this and used it to propel his candidacy. Trump's very first speech, announcing his candidacy, talked about trade -- a lot.
"That's right -- a lot of people up there can't get jobs. They can't get jobs because there are no jobs because China has our jobs and Mexico has our jobs. They all have our jobs.
"[. . .] I'm going to tell you a couple of stories about trade, because I'm totally against the trade bill for a number of reasons.
"...Free trade can be wonderful if you have smart people. But we have people that are stupid. We have people that aren't smart, and we have people that are controlled by special interests and it's just not going to work."
He went on to tell those stories. And more. There's much, much more about trade in that first speech. From that moment on in his campaign, he continued to talk about trade, in almost every speech, in the debates, and then in his final "closing argument."
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