Let's look at the neo-cons' worst-case scenario: If the U.S. were to send the bulk of its combat forces home (while leaving huge new embassies and a whole lot of residual troops at its hardened bases under "lease" arrangements with the local governments), would the world end? If Iran and Syria and Turkey were more active players in the region, would America be without influence? If Russia and China were to make alliances with Iran and Iraq and Afghanistan to partner with those countries to help extract the oil and gas and minerals in their lands, would this mean the U.S. would feel required to go to war against Russia and China to keep those natural resources from falling into the hands of the "bad guys"?
Even if some of those scenarios were to come about, the United States -- by virtue of its size, economy, resources and military strength -- would still be a pre-eminent force in the region and in the world. Note the "a," not "the." That change from the definite article to the indefinite is something Americans will have to get used to. The U.S. has gone from the last superpower left standing after the Cold War to a nation unsure how to use its enormous powers in a fast-changing geopolitical world.
History is, among other things, a record of who's up and who's down at various periods. No powerful empire remains intact and strong forever -- not Rome, not the "Thousand-Year Reich" (which lasted 12 years), not Great Britain, not the Soviet Union, not the United States of America. For a wide variety of reasons -- its military spread much too thin, native rebellions, climate change, new technologies, etc. -- power shifts occur. In our time, we are witnessing the growing rise of nations like China, India, Brazil, perhaps Russia again, Iran and so on. The U.S., which looked safe and secure after the breakup of the Soviet Empire, is already locked in trade and military and political and culture battles with these rising countries.
The U.S., during the Know-Nothing CheneyBush eight-year reign, lost momentum in scientific research and technological development, while its industrial base was shipped overseas. It is possible that America's leadership in innovation and engineering and scientific know-how can bring the country back again to its pre-eminent position in those areas, but in many ways other, less hidebound nations have moved ahead of the U.S. For example, consider the development of solar power in Germany and wind energy in Denmark.
FINDING THE RIGHT SOLUTIONS
Talk about hidebound. The U.S. remains dedicated to military solutions in an era when traditional ways of dealing with recalcitrant locals (bombing them, imprisoning them, torturing them) simply don't, and can't, bring victory. All such military misadventures do is to highlight the muscle-bound nature of large nations in the face of asymmetrical opposition. The U.S. simply has not been willing to admit that its usual way of bullying and beating down opponents are ineffectual, expensive, endless, and that political and economic solutions are the only ones in the long run that bear any chance of success. (Today, Vietnam is a growing trading partner with the U.S.)
U.S. administrations can change generals in Afghanistan every year or two and still be tied down there forever. The policy has to change. There are hints that Obama knows this, but, for political reasons, is unable or unwilling to make the hard decision to do so. So the unwinnable war in Afghanistan goes on and on and on, taking down with it Americans' sense of themselves as a moral, intelligent nation.
Something's got to change, and ordinary American citizens -- thinking globally while acting locally -- have got to be the agents of that change if our leaders are to follow. #
Bernard Weiner, Ph.D. in government & international relations, has taught at universities in California and Washington, was a writer/editor with the San Francisco Chronicle for two decades, and currently serves as co-editor of The Crisis Papers (www.crisispapers.org). To comment: >>
crisispapers@hotmail.com.Copyright 2010 by Bernard Weiner.
First published by The Crisis Papers 6/28/10.
www.crisispapers.org/essays10w/local.htm
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