"In...particularly the remote Far Eastern regions, where loyalty to Moscow has at times been questionable in past elections, we see particularly low turnout: Magadan (44%), Khabarovsk (44%). Almost the same comes up in Siberia: Novosibirsk (Russia's third largest city, 47%), Tomsk (44%)."
This leads to the question: which party has profited at the expense of United Russia and why?
The first part of this question is relatively easy: Zhirinovsky's party LDPR has profited, not the Liberal-minded, European friendly folks that our mainstream would like to see as an opposition that will eventually unseat Putin and bring Russia back to heel. But 'why' is more problematic.
As a first attempt at answering this, I point to the map. Europe as a moral and political compass is still more remote to your average Khabarovsk resident than Moscow, whereas China is right under his nose. These LDPR supporters are nationalists, and it would be reasonable to assume that they are less than delighted by the Kremlin's tilt to Beijing these past few years. If Moscow liberals may sound off over this because philosophically they prefer a Russia solidly aligned with the West, not in alliance with autocratic, Communist China, the broad population and its political class in Khabarovsk have more concrete reasons to dislike the ever closer ties with the China that they see daily just across the Amur.
It is not just the Yellow Peril issue of 1.3 billion Chinese keen to settle the vast empty expanses of resource rich Eastern Siberia and the Maritime Province. It is the Chinese who connive to illegally harvest pelts, cut down forests and poach fishing resources within Russian territory and the economic zone offshore. Russian federal authorities have been notoriously slow to crack down on these abuses which directly impact the wellbeing of local woodsmen and fishermen. As regards the fishermen, there is also local anger at the poaching by North Koreans, which even is picked up occasionally on Moscow's investigative reporting.
The curious thing is that one of the key drivers of the Kremlin's policy tilt to China has been to develop large scale, modern and highly remunerative employment for the Far Eastern population through massive energy infrastructure projects that serve firstly, the Chinese market, and as a byproduct, serve the population of the Russian Far East, as is the case, for example of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, that will finally bring natural gas to the Russian cities of the region and also provide feedstock for a massive chemical industry under construction there.
The protests over Furgal indicate that the benefits of the Kremlin's investments in the Far East have not yet trickled down to the population and alienation remains high.
But there is more to this story that has direct relevance to the nationwide political balance in Russia.
I believe that the crackdown on Furgal is one more move by United Russia to establish a stranglehold on Russian politics ahead of the 2021 State Duma elections. The leadership of United Russia was surely behind the changeover of the constitutional amendments from a redistribution of power between the three branches of government, the clear intent of Vladimir Putin when he announced the initiative on 15 January 2020, into a ratification of Putin's eligibility to stand for election again in 2024 and 2030, which is what the 1 July referendum was all about in the end. Surely the leadership of United Russia was also behind the removal of the leaders of the opposition parties in the Duma from nearly all television and media appearances for approximately three months this spring, till just before the referendum.
Now, the arrest of Furgal is an open attack on Vladimir Zhirinovsky's party. The crimes that may have been on record for Furgal did not surface so long as the party leader could ensure protection. Now that protection has been removed, Zhirinovsky has threatened to pull his party members out of the Duma in protest. For Russia today, that is very dramatic and newsworthy. It may also reflect the deep disappointment of Zhirinovsky that the sharing of power with the other Duma parties that was promised explicitly in Putin's 15 January speech, has been ripped up by the President's entourage to protect their own monopoly on power.
The attack on the LDPR is all the more stunning given that Zhirinovsky had been more royalist than the king in the run-up to the referendum, suggesting that it was unnecessary to hold the ballot given that the reform had already passed both houses of the legislature. Here he was in stark contrast to the leader of the Communists, Gennady Zyuganov, who alone among the Duma politicians had denounced the constitutional amendments precisely because of the allowance they made for Putin to remain in power forever.
For all of the above reasons, the coming trial of Furgal and resulting political fall-out deserves our full attention in the days and weeks ahead.
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