Around the time of the end of the first round of negotiations, another Brookings Fellow, Flynt Leverett , senior advisor for National Security Center, published a book "Inheriting Syria, Bashar's Trial by Fire" (Brookings book publication, April 2005). In his book, Leverett argued that instead of conflict, George W. Bush should seek to cooperate with Syria as Assad was popular, but instead seek to weaken Assad's position among his people by targeting the Golan (induce him to give it up) so that he would lose popularity among the Syrians. The JCPOA was designed in part along the same line of thinking. And more. His wife Hillary Leverett had a prominent role in 'selling' the Deal.
Secret negotiations between the Americans and 'reform-minded' Iranians never ceased, bypassing both Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, and the President at the time - Mahmood Ahmadinejad. In a 2012 meeting at the University of Southern California, present members of the Iran Project team had no reservations about suggesting that it was more beneficial to engage Iran rather than attack. They went as far as stating in the Q&A session to this writer that "they had been engaged with the "Green" (the opposition movement in the failed 2009 color revolution) for years, but Ahmadinejad won" (referring to the 2009 elections). But Ahmadinejad would soon leave office and be replaced by Rohani - a more amenable player.
Why Negotiate?
Fully appreciating the challenge of attacking Iran, in 2004, the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), presented its policy paper "The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Military Action" authored by Michael Eisenstadt. It was opined that the ideal situation was (and continues to be) to have a compliant 'regime' in Tehran. Eisenstadt was of the opinion that unlike the Osiraq nuclear power plant which was bombed and destroyed, Isarel/US would not be able to bomb Iran's Bushehr reactor with the same ease. In particular, Eisenstadt claimed that Israel may have benefited from French aid in destroying Osiraq. French intelligence reportedly emplaced a homing beacon at Osiraq to help Israeli pilots locate the facility or target a critical underground structure there.
In this light, it was recommended that the principal goal of U.S. action should be to delay Iran's nuclear program long enough to allow for the possible emergence of new leadership in Tehran. Failing that, war would have been facilitated.
It was thought the Paris Agreement talks would fail (as the JCPOA was designed to fail) and as such, the following were some of the suggestions made:
" harassment or murder of key Iranian scientists or technicians;
" introduction of fatal design flaws into critical reactor, centrifuge, or weapons components during their production, to ensure catastrophic failure during use;
" disruption or interdiction of key technology or material transfers through sabotage or covert military actions on land, in the air, or at sea;
" sabotage of critical facilities by U.S. intelligence assets, including third country nationals or Iranian agents with access to key facilities;
" introduction of destructive viruses into Iranian computer systems controlling the production of components or the operation of facilities;
" damage or destruction of critical facilities through sabotage or direct action by U.S. special forces.
As with the murder and terror of the nuclear scientists, and the Stuxnet virus into the reactor, the JCPOA enabled personnel on the ground in Iran to carry out extensive sabotage as has been recently observed in recent days and weeks. Rohani's visa free travel opened the flood gates to spies and saboteurs - dual citizens, who easily traveled with passports other than American, British, and Australian. Iran even managed to prevent an IAEA inspector who triggered an alarm at Iran's nuclear facility. But it would seem, Iran has not been able to stop other intruders and terrorists - not yet.
Other Motivational Factors for Negotiating
According to studies, as of 2008 Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor had 82 tons of enriched uranium (U235) loaded into it, according to Israeli and Chinese reports. This amount was significantly higher pre and during negotiations. History has not witnessed the bombing of a nuclear power plant with an operational nuclear enrichment facility. Deliberate bombing of such facilities would result breach containment and radioactive elements released. The death toll horrifying. The Union of Concerned Scientists has estimated 3 million deaths would result in 3 weeks from bombing the nuclear enrichment facilities near Esfahan, and the contamination would cover Afghanistan, Pakistan, all the way to India.
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