Iran will be the victim here, but there will be some who would take advantage of a war. An attack would unify the country around what is now a rather unpopular government, allow the Revolutionary Guard to crush its opposition, and give cover to the current drive by the Ahmadinejad government to cut subsidies for transportation, housing and food. A war would cement the power of the most reactionary elements of the current regime.
There are other actors in this drama -- China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Pakistan for starters, none of whom support a war -- but whether they can influence events is an open question. In the end, Israel may just decide that its interests are served by starting a war, and that the U.S. will go along because it is much of the same mind.
Or maybe this is all sound and fury signifying nothing?
The sobering thought is that the three most powerful actors in this drama -- Israel, the U.S. and its European allies, and the Gulf Cooperation Council -- have many of the same interests, and share the belief that force is an effective way to achieve one's goals.
On such illusions are tragedies built.
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