We're Out of Everything
Personally, as a strong civil liberties advocate, I am most interested in Heinberg's work around resource scarcity. Partly because I share his concerns about the fascist, gulag style government likely to be implemented in many Western democracies. And partly because he goes into greater detail about what ordinary citizens can do to prepare for the crisis.
Heinberg admits he is more concerned about resource scarcity than climate change. He says it's obvious that people aren't scared enough of climate change to do anything about it. And it's not just oil and natural gas we're running out of. He cities a number of credible studies revealing that in the next 15-20 years, we will also be out of coal, uranium (there will still be coal and uranium in the ground but extracting it will be incredibly expensive), rock phosphate (needed for industrial agriculture), fresh water, topsoil, grain, fish, arable land, minerals and precious metals (including Indium and Gallium, which are needed to make solar panels).
Goodbye Southern California
Heinberg makes it clear that vast urban centers in dry areas like southern California will simply not exist two decades from now. For two reasons. Owing to dwindling fresh water supplies everywhere there will be no way to supply drinking water to millions of people between Los Angeles and the Mexican border. And because of skyrocketing fuel costs, no one is going to transport food 5,000 miles (as they do now) to feed them.
Major Social Upheaval is Inevitable
He also emphasizes that public dialogue needs to move beyond changing lightbulbs and carbon taxes to the major social upheaval that no longer be avoided as well as options for managing it. We all know damn well the ruling elite has been discussing it at least since 2000. That's one good thing about Republicans. They seem find it much harder to conceal what they're really up to.
Heinberg lays out three broad societal changes that need to occur as fossil fuels become prohibitively expensive: de-mechanization (replacing fossil fuel driven machines with human and animal labor), de-urbanization (moving people closer to their resource base) and a total infrastructure revamp - replacing our existing infrastructure with one that isn't dependent on machines and fossil fuels.
The Role of Government in Managing Societal Change
Heinberg sees three possible routes that government will take in managing this massive societal change:
Option 1: Feudal fascism
This involves forced movement of people away from cities into prisons and work camps (and slavery), which will involve continual surveillance of the rest of the population. It will be instituted by whipping up popular support for strong law enforcement and military intervention during a period of massive unemployment, homelessness, food shortages and resulting instability and chaos.
Heinberg already sees evidence the world's most powerful countries (the US, China and Russia) have selected Option 1 and are already moving in this direction. Referring, presumably, to the continuing attack on civil liberties in all three countries. As well as the continuing impetus to incarcerate minorities, dissidents and now debtors, as well putting them to work for private industry. (see http://www.opendemocracy.net/charles-shaw/essential-reading-on-us-prison-industrial-complex).
He feels upper middle class families in all three countries will strongly support Option 1 to protect their homes, gold and food from the starving masses. He likens the scenario to Blackwater opening fire on unarmed destitute civilians after Katrina, but on a much larger scale.
Option 2: The Eco Deal
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