The midterm problem for Democrats is that they first have to get their base out to vote: Solid Liberals (21 percent), Next Generation Left (11 percent), and Faith and Family Left (12 percent). But this is only 44 percent of the probable electorate. To prevail in November, Democrats have to win back the Hard-Pressed Skeptics (9 percent) who voted for Obama in 2012 but are disillusioned.
The Pew typology helps us understand Hard-Pressed Skeptics:
Only about a third of Hard-Pressed Skeptics (32%) say they work-full-time" About six-in-ten (61%) are white, non-Hispanic" About half (51%) are 50 or older, which is somewhat higher than the share of older Americans in the public (44%).
Members of this group are not well informed. "Just 39% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics say they are interested in government and politics, the lowest percentage of any typology group." On the other hand, they have a Democratic perspective: "Seven-in-ten (71%) Hard-Pressed Skeptics say the poor have hard lives because government benefits don't go far enough to help them live decently." Nonetheless, Hard-Pressed Skeptics have mixed political allegiance, "51% plan to vote for the Democrat in their congressional district, while 37% plan to vote Republican."
To reengage these voters, Democrats have to appeal to them on bread-and-butter issues. This won't be the Affordable Care Act, where Pew reports that only 40 percent have a favorable view. However, 66 percent of Hard-Pressed Skeptics believe "Government should do more for the needy even if it means going deeper in debt." In the Colorado Senate race, Democratic Senator Mark Udall is attacking his opponent for failing to support a minimum wage increase.
What remains to be seen is whether the Hard-Pressed Skeptics will actually vote. Given how preoccupied they are with economic survival, the only way that Democrats can reengage with these voters is face-to-face contact. This suggests that the strength of the Democratic ground game will determine the success of beleaguered Democratic candidates On November 4th.
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