The attitude of the military, while it
controls about 10-percent of the economy and was the prime beneficiary of US
aid under Mubarak, is key to which scenario will prevail. It is seen by US
officials as a regressive force opposed to privatization. Georgetown
University's Paul Sullivan says, "There is a witch hunt for corruption, and
there is a risk that the economy might go back to the days of Nasser." Sounds
good to me.
Nostalgia for the (dictatorial) regime of
Nasser remains strong in Egypt, even among those born decades after Nasser died.
Sometimes, dictators are necessary -- to confront entrenched elites who refuse to
share their wealth. There is little likelihood of another Nasser, however.
Whatever scenario unfolds in Egypt will involve messy political squabbles and
unstable coalitions as Egyptians taste the forbidden fruits of electoral
democracy.
Perhaps the supporters of socialism will coalesce around some version of the Nasser legacy, one that can form a working coalition with the Brotherhood (MB). Though the MB is capitalist in orientation, its main planks are to end corruption and improve social services. MB support of the revolution was key to its success and it is now preparing to launch a party modeled on the Turkish Justice and Development Party -- the Justice and Freedom Party .
There is no question that, as in the
Philippines, the only answer to Egypt's economic woes -- high unemployment,
extreme poverty, crumbling social services and a gaping chasm between rich and
poor -- is a strong dose of socialism.
Egypt and Tunisia are the first nations to successfully overthrow their neo-liberal regimes. Ironically, their lack of democracy proved to be an advantage, forcing the impoverished masses to unite against their oppressors. Misguided US commentators ask: "Will Venezuela be the next Egypt?" The answer is: "Will Egypt be the next Venezuela?"
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