For instance, Obama's goal of a Middle East peace breakthrough as the central element in resetting U.S. relations with the Muslim world has been sidetracked, in part, by recognition that any ramped-up pressure on Israel to make concessions could anger powerful neoconservatives, both in Congress and the Washington press corps.
Already, neocon Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut has warned that he will support a Republican filibuster to kill health-care reform if any public option survives, and the Washington Post's neocon editorial page has lashed out at important features of the House bill, such as the surtax on the rich.
In the convoluted politics of Washington, even seemingly disconnected issues " like health care and Middle East peace " can be joined by a desire to weaken a political foe. The neocons well understand that if Obama can be broken on health care, he would lack the political clout to pressure Israel into making significant peace concessions.
At minimum, by hobbling Obama politically, the neocons would guarantee continuation of the status quo in the Middle East, with Israel continuing to consolidate its settlements in the West Bank and keeping alive prospects for a military strike against Iran's nuclear program.
A weakened Obama also could open the way for restoration of neocon control of U.S. foreign policy if the Republicans can retake Congress and the White House over the next three years. That, in turn, could revive neocon dreams of having the United States wage war against Israel's enemies in the region, most notably Iran and Syria.
While some of this neocon dreaming may seem farfetched today, it should not be forgotten that just a few years ago, this agenda of "regime change was at the heart of U.S. government policy and had the staunch support of powerful institutions, like the Washington Post. Plus, despite the Bush disasters, the neocons retain extraordinary influence in key Washington power centers.
The neocons, after all, got their first real taste of Washington power under Ronald Reagan after working to undermine President Jimmy Carter's policies, both domestic and foreign, when Carter was pressuring Israel to achieve peace with the Palestinians. [See Robert Parry's Secrecy & Privilege.]
Slipping Away
As Obama struggles with health care and is unable to focus on Middle East peace, he is watching other opportunities for change slip away. Angered by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's refusal to halt expansion of settlements on the West Bank, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has declared that he will not stand for reelection in January.
That could open the door to either a unified Palestinian leadership under the more radical Hamas or a power vacuum. Either way, negotiations could be off for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, the Muslim world increasingly is viewing Obama's outreach, such as his much-acclaimed Cairo speech, as all talk, no action.
The Israeli-Palestinian stalemate has other consequences. By failing to reverse the anti-American hostility that surged across the Muslim world during Bush's presidency, Obama confronts diminished prospects for winding down the Iraq War in a way favorable to U.S. interests and tamping down violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Those international problems then reverberate back to the U.S. political scene by creating more concerns about troop levels in the war zones and prospects for future terrorism.
Already, Obama has delayed a decision on Gen. Stanley McChrystal's request for 40,000 more troops in Afghanistan, on top of the 68,000 Americans already there. While Obama says he wants a thorough policy review, he has come under criticism, on one side, from Republicans for "dithering and, on the other, from the Democratic base eager to end an eight-year-old war that many analysts doubt can be won at this late stage.
If Obama opts for some middle ground " like sending a lesser number of new troops " he is sure to anger both sides.
Similar halfway measures on the economy " backing away from nationalizing some too-big-too-fail banks last winter and agreeing to a scaled-down $787 billion economic stimulus plan rather than an amount over one trillion dollars that some economists said was necessary " have left Obama in another fix, getting hammered by Republicans for both spending profligacy and ineffectiveness on the jobs front.
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