The first step to deal
with the challenging environment is to understand that stability built on
autocracy is over, because the genie is already out of the bottle. The
options left for America in the Middle East are either to stand idle, which
will definitely elongate people's struggle or to support the revolutionary
movements to the dismay of some old allies.
In such turning points,
history can provide NO guarantees. But, logically an elongated struggle will
most likely bring extreme religious factions. These extremists are already presenting
themselves as the alternative to the secular institutional corruption supported
by America and the west. On the other hand, a shorter struggle can enable the
real actors of the revolution, mostly liberals and moderate Islamists, to
provide a reliable alternative.
It is in America's interest
to support a peaceful and speedy power transfer.
America has developed
over the last forty years the Egyptian military apparatus and even handpicked
their leadership. This influence is the result of 1.3 billion dollars in
military aid that goes mainly to buy loyalty through fancy long training
engagements and huge commissions permissible by Egyptian laws. This is the time
to use this capital.
I'm quite confident that
the American administration is able, if willing, to advice/ pressures the Egyptian
generals in private to share power with a civilian leadership representing all
the major political factions. Such move will bring immediate calm to the
explosive situation in Egypt and should be a first step towards complete and
real power transfer to elected civilians. The new Egyptian administration might
be less loyal to America than Mubarak and his cronies, but the people of Egypt
and the rest of the Arab world can and will support America if the American
administration is smart enough to support freedom and democracy.
A resolution to the
Egyptian crisis will serve as a model to bring back stability to other
countries within the region. America should support the Arab revolution because
of principles, but it is also good for business.
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