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The Federal Reserve is Bankrupt

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Message Matthias Chang

 

"Another sign of trouble is a ‘repo fail'. A ‘repo fail' occurs when one side of the agreement fails to abide by the contract. [Fail to deliver the security under the repurchase agreement.]

 

"Dealer banks would not accept collateral because they rightly believed that if they had to seize the collateral should the counter-party fail, then there would be no market in which to sell it. This was due to the absence of buyers because of the deleveraging. This led to an absence of prices for these securities. If the value cannot be determined because there is no market – no liquidity or there is the concern that if the asset is seized by the lender, it will not be saleable at all, then the dealer will not engage in repo. Repo dealers report that there was uncertainty about whether to believe the ratings on these structured products, and in a very fast moving environment, the response was to pull back from accepting anything structured. If no one would accept structured products for repo, then these bonds could not be traded – and then no one would want to accept them in repo transactions."

 

This change led to a sharp increase in the demand for government securities for repo transactions, which was compounded by significantly higher safe-haven demand for US Treasuries and the increased unwillingness to lend such securities in repo transactions. As the crisis unfolded, this combination resulted in US government collateral becoming extremely scarce. [6]

 

I will now turn to the issue of the FED's solvency.

 

As has been observed, the Fed intervened aggressively to check the run on the repo market. Various measures were taken, but in my view the most dangerous was the widening of the collaterals which the Fed was willing to accept to secure funding of the players in the repo market. The Fed also intervened by lending a huge chunk of its US treasuries in exchange for junks to facilitate credit expansion.

 

In the result, what happened was that the Fed's present balance sheet of approximately $2 trillion is made up mostly of junk securities.

 

The Fed is no different from banks in that confidence in the quality of its assets is critical and that if and when the market recovers, there is in fact a market for the junk assets that it took on to unravel the gridlock in the financial markets.

 

By way of analogy, if your high street bank's balance sheet is made up of junk, what would you do? There are just not enough assets to meet its liabilities.

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Born: 22.Feb 1950 Barrister, Inner Temple, UK; Advocate... Solicitor, High Court of Malaya. Senior Partner: Messrs Suhaimi Khor Zulkifli... Chang Author: The Fast Forward Trilogy
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