For his path to 270 electoral votes, Trump starts with a solid base of 125, from 20 states that are most likely to be uncontested. When you combine that base of solid states with the additional 38 electoral votes from Texas that are currently leaning in his direction, it brings Trump's total to 163 electoral votes -- 107 away from reelection.
That leaves us with five states and one congressional district worth a total of 85 electoral votes that are the current toss-ups on the map: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina and Ohio.
If Trump is to have a successful reelection effort, it has to start with running the table with all of them and then still finding at least 22 electoral votes currently leaning toward Biden and bringing them back into his fold.