For Democrats, it's Rove time: Rally the base and save Congress
Maybe I'm wrong.
In fact, maybe I'm really, really wrong, which is the reaction I hear
when I dare even to broach this notion to commentators and political
strategists in both parties. So let me state it plainly: I now think the
Democrats will hold the Congress--yes, the House as well as the Senate--and turn back high-profile Republican challengers in California and elsewhere.
The GOP strategy of "no" worked to slow the recovery, stoke fears about
fictions like death panels in the health-reform bill, and persuade
voters to strike out in frustration against Democrats. The trend peaked in August, a month Democrats probably wish they could abolish given the dog days they suffered then, in 2009 as well as 2010.
But with the onset of autumn, there are signs that the Republican tide
is receding. Karl Rove would understand--the same dynamic was the key to
George W. Bush's narrow re-election in 2004, when the GOP base showed up
to vote in numbers that defied the polling models. This time, it's the Democratic base that's stirring--and finally engaging--and the survey research is registering the shift. In the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the Republican
advantage in the ballot for Congress has declined from nine points to
three. The explanation: African-Americans and Hispanics are re-entering
the likely electorate.
California is a prime example. The GOP covets a comeback in the state
that produced Nixon and Reagan before turning a deep navy blue after the
party scapegoated immigrants and scorned Hispanics. But Democrat Jerry
Brown has pulled ahead of eBay mogul Meg Whitman, who's bid $119 million
and counting for the governorship (and yes, her paid consultants are
counting fast and furious). Whitman never managed to open up a real lead
even when she had California's expensive airwaves to herself; now,
after immigrant-baiting during the primary, she can't afford for the
electorate to expand.
Similarly, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is pulling away from Republican
Carly Fiorina, an ex-CEO renowned more for corporate failures than
successes. Whitman comes across as stilted; Fiorina is the job-exporting
equivalent of Cruella De Vil. As unappealing as her profile is even in a
low-turnout election, it looks even worse as the likely voter pool
grows.
Elsewhere, incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray has strengthened her
position in Washington state. And across the country, the Tea Party is
the gift that keeps on giving--from Nevada to Delaware, where the
unelectable Republican Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell has become a national punch line. The tea-imbibing Republicans are a twofer for Democrats: They scare mainstream voters and motivate the Democratic
base, too. Thus in Pennsylvania, the ultra-conservative Pat Toomey,
riding the currents of economic discontent, has suddenly hit troubled
waters as people learn that his idea of reform is to privatize Social
Security and "abolish corporate taxes altogether." Discouraged
blue-collar Democrats now have something to vote against other than the
president's failure to turn things around fast enough. Toomey's margin
over his Democratic opponent Joe Sestak is shrinking--first down to five
points in a late September Suffolk University poll, and subsequently to
three points in the latest Susquehanna numbers. A race that was written
off is winnable.
Then there's the Senate contest in incarnadined Kentucky, where from the start Democrats have defected in big numbers during the age of Obama.
He lost the state decisively in 2008. This fall, Democrat Jack Conway's
making his case for them to come home. Or perhaps Rand Paul is making
it for him. The fringe GOP nominee from the tea-precincts has seen his
13-point margin in the Survey USA poll cut to two points as Democrats
recoil at notions like Paul's proposed $2,000 deductible for Medicare.
"That's crazy," a Kentucky senior says in Conway's latest ad.
(Note: I'm dispensing in every race with the riotously Republican Rasmussen surveys, which are the psephological counterpart to the Laffer Curve on a cocktail napkin.)
So I believe the Senate's safe. But what about the House? There is, of
course, a spillover effect from statewide races and the nationwide
distaste for extremist tea. The change in the makeup of the electorate
can close the gap in the generic vote and let the Democrats inch ahead--but the base has to continue tuning in and then it has to turn out. That depends on President Obama--and on progressive Democrats deciding that right now the stakes in this campaign are more important than the reflex instinct to complain.
The Obama of 2008 has returned with a message and a mission. Although
the Blue Dogs are slinking away--in some cases toward their own
defeat--he's carried the cause of tax fairness straight into the district
of Republican House Whip Eric Cantor. While the NBC/Wall Street Journal
findings show a close to even split on extending the lower rates for
the highest income, a presidential push can change that by posing a
stark choice--tax cuts for the middle class versus the Bush tax cuts for
the wealthy. And this can animate a larger theme that will mobilize the
party's natural base: that Democrats fight for you, while Republicans are for the few, the comfortable, and the privileged.
The president's also back on campus again--this week at the University
of Wisconsin, where 26,000 came out to cheer him as he told them in no
uncertain terms that they needed to show up in November. He'll have to
sound that appeal again and again. In the NBC/Wall Street Journal data,
only 35 percent of young voters express high interest in the midterm
election; they haven't yet followed Hispanics and African-Americans into
the likely voter column.
Obama can change the political weather by a few degrees--and that might
be just enough. In the process, he has to inspire and not just scold
disappointed progressives. But he has a point when he says that it's
"inexcusable" for Democrats to skip the midterms: "People need to buck up."
They do, for the hopes they rallied to in 2008 are now in their hands as much as his.
Those who think the stimulus was too small--that Paul Krugman was
right--need to remember that according to the Economic Policy Institute,
the recent GOP "Pledge" would destroy 1 million jobs. They need to
realize that the Republican plan is to drag out or destroy the recovery--and then they need to vote.
Those disappointed by the failure to enact a public option should think about the Republican commitment to "repeal and replace" health reform--and the reality that "replace" means placing the health insurance industry back in charge.
Those who are dissatisfied with the slow pace of progress on gay
rights, global warming, or Guantà ¡namo should ask themselves whether they
are prepared to allow the enemies of equality, the environment, and
civil liberties to take control.
Those angered by the Obama decision to persist in Afghanistan--while
setting a deadline--surely do not prefer the advocates of endless war.
How could they permit them to capture the Congress?
The president's out there--finally. The Congress will soon be out of
Washington--thankfully. The polls are moving--gradually--as the likely
voter sample shifts. By defining the stakes, Barack Obama can accelerate that movement. There's just enough time, assuming Democrats,
especially the young, are sensible enough to understand that we are
past the excitement of 2008. There is more to achieving change than
standing, cheering, and voting for it once, and then standing aside.
It's Rove time for Democrats. Rally the base--and save the Congress.
