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October 20, 2007 at 10:23:32
John Edwards , Hillary Clinton , Fred Thompson and the state of the 2008 Presidential Election by Steven Leser Page 1 of 1 page(s) |
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I did not expect Fred Thompson to be still in second place in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination in late October and I am pleased to find out that I overestimated him. After months of artfully crafted suspense concerning whether or when he would announce a bid for the Presidency, the actual event and his first debate performance and everything thereafter have been a fizzle. When I wrote my June 26 article predicting a Thompson GOP nomination, I expected Thompson would perform like an Arthur Branch, or the Admiral from “Hunt for Red October” or even the guy who appeared on an internet video smoking a cigar and deriding Michael Moore and his movie “Sicko”. The real Fred Thompson is none of those men and has little ability to be extemporaneous. What I am finding out about Thompson is that if you give him the chance to study a good script in advance and provide him the proper set, he can deliver a good performance. That is not enough to wage a successful bid for President. You have to be able to deliver great, unscripted lines in the heat of the moment surrounded by a gaggle of competitors and journalists who are analyzing every word and phrase hoping to use them to rip you apart. In his debate performance, Thompson reminded me of an aging prizefighter who is way past his prime. He sees openings in his opposition’s defenses but is too slow to be able to exploit them. The real Fred Thompson has shown that he is not up to playing in the big game and the numbers show it. He has name and face recognition associated with popular television and movie characters most other politicians would give up more than one limb to have. Despite that, he is running a clear second to a Rudy Giuliani who has many problems with rank and file Republicans on social issues and doesn’t have near the Hollywood Law and Order star quality he has. If Thompson isn’t running a big first in the polls by now, he is never going to be. Combine that with a Giuliani who has shown that he is much tougher and more resilient then I thought HE was and it adds up to Giuliani winning the nomination. Hillary Clinton I’ve never struggled so much and so hard to try to get excited about a politician as I have with Hillary Clinton. Some might ask why, but the reason is simple. She is far ahead in the polls and seems to be gaining momentum. It would be much easier to support her from a perspective of not having to struggle to get someone nominated, than it would to support anyone else right now. I’d certainly like ‘easy’ for a change. I wish she would help me be able to like her. I recently wrote, “The Democratic Party leadership seems intent on a course that fails but for the opposite reason the GOP failed. The leadership is bent on satisfying independents in the center and center right and ignoring the liberal/progressive base of the Democratic Party. That leads to failure just as assuredly as either party pandering only to their party’s extremes does.” I don’t think any Democratic Party politician currently embodies that sentiment more than Hillary does. I don’t think that was always so. In the 2006 senate race, I castigated New York progressives for campaigning against her. At the time I viewed her as moderate but not centrist. She has definitely become a centrist. I wonder if that is cause or effect. Did the idea that she had no traction with progressives push her toward the center to seek a constituency? Right now, the intellectual exercise to think and debate that is irrelevant. We, as Democrats, are hurtling toward nominating a candidate I am starting to have a hard time recognizing as a Democrat.
She and her campaign have been doing some things right. I complained in my February 23 article that the percentage of Americans that had a negative perception of her was too high. She has taken care of that, but she hasn’t allayed some of my other concerns. Here is an excerpt from that article that I think she and her campaign could use to make some big inroads with liberals and progressives:
Starting with the issues, when your husband pushed for and got NAFTA passed, many of us agreed with him and thought free trade was the way to go. I was one of those people who thought free trade was good and would balance out in the end. I thought it would open up new markets to American made products even as the influx of foreign goods might cause some loss of manufacturing jobs and may even cause a few bankruptcies in the sector. What has happened is very little of the former and a lot of the latter. I regret my personally supporting free trade and I think it has been shown to be a mistake from an American perspective. I would like to see you commission a serious study of the effects of NAFTA and other free trade initiatives on American manufacturing and labor. Perhaps a study like this already exists, I do not know. Either way, I would like to see you carefully examining the data from such a study and adjusting your positions accordingly. I would also like to see you come out strong on fixing what is behind the shrinking middle class and its deteriorating share of American wealth.
Since Hillary may very well win the nomination and perhaps the Presidency, I want to be excited about that. I want to be able, if she wins the nomination, to get behind her candidacy with a great deal of enthusiasm. I will support her if she wins the nomination regardless, but passion in your supporters (or the lack of it) means a lot in a Presidential race.
John Edwards
With Clinton and Thompson, I know how they are performing and I know why. I don’t understand why Edwards is running a distant third in the race for the Democratic nomination. He is a great speaker and debater, he is brilliant, and almost everyone who sees and hears him has to admit they like him. So why isn’t he doing better? One can guess from the above that I am a supporter of Edwards and they would be right. I think Edwards is an excellent candidate and that he would be the best President of any of the candidates running on either side of the aisle. I also think the popular criticisms of him are ridiculous. Let’s talk about the most famous one, the $400 haircuts.
I never understood the hullabaloo about the expensive haircuts. Everyone I know has one or more hobbies on which they tend to spend ‘a lot’ of money. ‘A lot’ is always relative to how much you have and how much you make. When I was in college, my hobby was computing. I think the computer equipment that I owned totaled, if one added up the amount I paid for each, one quarter of my annual income at the time. When I was growing up, my father had a man come in every other week to perform a thorough cleaning of our house. That man, who didn’t earn a lot of money, had an expensive model train hobby. Hobbies that involve personal comfort or taking care of ones looks are hardly special or new. In fact, for a politician, all of whom in the modern era spend time on television and in Edwards’ case, for whom appearance and charisma is an important asset, spending time and money looking after ones appearance makes sense. The haircut issue is such a red herring that I think it is insulting to anyone with an IQ greater than that of a goldfish.
Here is what I know about John Edwards. He cares about people, and I mean all people. He is concerned about America becoming the land of the haves versus the “have-nots”. John Edwards is self-made, and he knows what it is like to grow up as a member of the working class. He understands the challenges and issues faced by those of us in that class. He isn’t perfect; he has made mistakes in his life and in his votes as a politician. He understands and admits when he has made mistakes and he institutes changes in his policy proposals and in himself. When you hear Edwards speak, you come to know all of these things intuitively. He affects and reaches people at a level that none of the other frontrunners for either party can.
My hope and I don’t think it is an unreasonable one, is that when it comes time for the Iowa caucuses, caucus-goers look into their hearts, find the only one there politically is John Edwards, and give him a resounding victory. I further hope that victory propels Edwards to at least a strong second in New Hampshire and victories in every contest thereafter.
Regardless of who wins the nomination, if a Democrat is raising their right hand on January 21, 2009 to be sworn in as our next President, I will be happy and it will be a massive improvement.
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MM and the candidates
About Hillary. She is sure there won't be another Nader, so progressives have no where else to go. So she hoves to the center. Also, the sad truth is no one makes it to the White House with out a pass from the Mega Money (MM). No amount of advertising can beat Murdoch and Redstone and Mickey, yet. So that's why the D front runners are hedging on the war and health insurance. by GitarChris (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 142 comments) on Saturday, Oct 20, 2007 at 2:06:45 PM  (0+)
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Nice Article.
I think the Edwards campaign will show a lot of strength as we move toward the primaries. His union strength is good, and growing. The rally friday with the California SEIU was exciting. This endorsement gave Edwards another 650,000 union members to help build ground support. Today (Saturday October 20) he is with the Carpenters Union in Nevada. That endorsement is a great one to boost Nevada! Edwards does well in match-ups in states who usually vote Republicans, and this should start to attract the attention of the media. I hope you will post more articles as the campaign goes on, and also share some insights on some of the other candidates. by bettync (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 12 comments) on Saturday, Oct 20, 2007 at 2:13:25 PM (0+)
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Choices
If one is a loyal democrat and a pragmatist then Hillary is the choice. If one is a loyal democrat and a moderate or centrist then its gotta be Edwards If one may be a loyal democrat and an idealist ( and Im uncertain there can be those, especially of late) then its Kucinich. Me, I dont register Democratic so I cant support Dennis, though Id love too....... Im waiting to see who the nominee for the Greens, Populists and other third parties are, especially as Hillary cannot lose the race for the Democratic nomination without a major incident ocurring. Id rather vote for Mickey Mouse than Hillary Clinton, sorry. She is bright, articulate, politically savvy and may make me eat my words someday, but it aint someday yet. by ardee D. (6 articles, 4 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 2377 comments) on Saturday, Oct 20, 2007 at 8:48:50 PM (0+)
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Sellouts
You people are all sellouts. You're all shilling for the corporate elites. Edwards and Clinton are fascist scum. They're not moderates and centrists. They both supported the illegal invasion of Iraq and they both support staying in Iraq. They both support attacking Iran and causing World War 3. They both support shredding the constitution. They both voted for and continue to support the Patriot Act. They have made no effort to repeal the Military Commissions Act which legalizes torture and violates habeaus corpus. They both support NAFTA, CAFTA, and the WTO. They both oppose a not-for-profit national healthcare system. They both support the "War On Drugs", and the "War On Terror". They both oppose impeaching Dick Cheney and George W Bush and they oppose 911 Truth. Dennis Kucinich is the only Democrat you should consider voting for. A vote for any of the "top tier" candidates as well as most of the other Democratic presidential candidates is a vote for more war, a continued police state, more poverty, and an act of treason. http://www.dennis4president.com http://www2.kucinich.us/issues by Ty (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 888 comments [2 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Sunday, Oct 21, 2007 at 11:03:14 AM (0+)
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Reply: You are confused about Edward's positions.
If you prefer Kucinich, that's great....but please do not incorrectly report Edward's positions. His web site is a good place to review his positions, because he has very complete position statements on all key issues. Edwards wants to remove fighting troops from Iraq immediately. He repeatedly attacks the Bush admistrations "bumper sticker War on Terror". He frequently speaks out on the need to protect the constitution. He would close Guantanamo prison on his first day in office, and end the abuses of torture and also spying on Americans without a warrant. Unlike Hillary, Edwards has aplogized to Americans for his first vote on Iraq. His voice is raised now to cut off all funding. Also, Edwards is an outspoken supporter of labor and the right to organize. Edwards champions the same progressive ideas as Dennis, but is slightly more moderate. This slight difference gives us a progressive candidate who has a realistic chance to win the general election. by bettync (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 12 comments) on Sunday, Oct 21, 2007 at 12:02:40 PM (0+)
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Hillary
Hillary will lose and drag the Democrats down with her. She will be swiftboated. She has more than enough garbage in her background for attack ads like you have never seen before. She was in the middle of all the White House scandals (remember all those?) and after the healthcare fiasco was pretty much traveling the world in Chesea for 5-6 years and did little or nothing. White House experience? The WH cook should be running if that is all it takes. No one can name 5 accomplishments this woman has in her resume that do not involve wishy-washy terms like 'support'. She has done absolutely nothing. She currently is illegally collecting money from every Chinese citizen/non-citizen in this country through her China-connections that BIll developed while in the White House. One of the poorest areas in NY gave her close to a million dollars according to the LAT. Most of the people on the donor's lists had no idea that they gave. This is criminal activity and saying 'everyone does the same thing' isn't going to fly. This is not an isolated incident for Hillary. She is the last person we want as president or running for president although it looks as if that is going to happen. Obama would be better if he had some experience. He is a leader, but it takes more than that to run this country. Bill Clinton had what Ross Perot Wal-Mart managerial experience (being governor of Arkansas is about the same as running a Wal-Mart) and had to do some serious OJT for the first 2-3 years of his presidency. He was smart enough to get rid of the Arkansas crew and get some serious help on board and that is what saved him from being the worst president in history. Kucinich is sort of pitiful. He might be a good guy but his inept campaign had his wife campaigning in Bisbee, AZ the other day. BISBEE AZ! She must be a real loser for his campaign to have her out campaigning in the boonies of all boonies in a non-primary state. A candidate has to be judged by their campaign. If a candidate can't run or find good people to run a campaign how can they run the country? I have been to Bisbee and never want to go back. by Mad Jayhawk (3 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 652 comments [56 recommended, 3 rejected]) on Sunday, Oct 21, 2007 at 1:02:33 PM (0+)
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Haircut issue is such a red herring
If a candidate is a member of the mafia or has been in and out of jail 50 times it is just a little far-fetched for him/her to be making a big issue about honesty and integrity. John Edwards makes big issue out of poverty and being poor yet he lives a millionaire lifestyle. Most normal people have no issue with his money, how he got it, or his jet-set life style. However it appears he says one thing and apparently does another. When he is shown on the news walking around a bad neighborhood in New Orleans and the next thing you see is his huge mansion in NC or hear about $400 haircuts. Those people in New Orleans probably could have used that $400 for groceries. People remember this kind of stuff. They might not think about it but they remember. Edwards hoisted himself on his on petard. It is not a red herring but a stinky dead codfish he caught himself. by Mad Jayhawk (3 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 652 comments [56 recommended, 3 rejected]) on Sunday, Oct 21, 2007 at 1:28:51 PM (0+)
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Reply: That is BS unworthy of a response, but here it is...
People in the poverty stricken slums of the third world would say the same about just about anyone here in the US. The poverty that the poor know here is nothing like theirs. Does that mean none of of us have a right to speak about poverty? If you won the mega lottery tomorrow and moved to a nice house, would you be unable to speak about whatever class you belonged to only hours before? Take your nonsensical arguments elsewhere. by Steven Leser (255 articles, 58 quicklinks, 38 diaries, 2147 comments [63 recommended, 2 rejected]) on Sunday, Oct 21, 2007 at 3:06:25 PM (0+)
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zenpiper
I think your assessment of Fred Thompson (whom I call Flubber) was on-target. Had he not been in movies or on television, he would be a complete non-starter. He lacks skill and drive; and his past is fairly shady. I am a little disappointed you did not mention Ron Paul. I like this guy. His record is clean, he is passionate about restoring the Constitution to the rule of law, and would end the war. There is more, and he is certainly worth a look. I had been an Obama supporter until I saw a YouTube video, "Ron Paul Stop Dreaming." As well, the candidates you wrote about are CFR members. This, to me, is a good reason to disqualify them. Since 1921 the CFR has consistently undermined U.S. sovereignty. We have it to thank for our involvement with the United Nations, the WTO, GATT, NAFDA and the likely North American Union, on schedule for 2010. Ron Paul is not a member and vigorously opposes the CFR-inspired associations, since they take away power from the people of this Republic. by zenpiper (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 16 comments) on Sunday, Oct 21, 2007 at 5:35:05 PM (0+)
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Ron Paul
Ron Paul. Thats all.The rest is just more of the same garbage and we all know it. by cuda (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 5 comments) on Sunday, Oct 21, 2007 at 6:48:27 PM (0+)
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