Before any Israeli and/or American strike on Iran there will first be an attack on the well dug in Hezbollah Special Forces in Lebanon. This is because the Hezbollah rocket forces there are a strategic threat to Israel's existence and a strategic checkmate by Iran and Syria against Israel's nuclear arsenal. In fact the 2006 Lebanon War (known in Lebanon as the "July War" and in Israel as the "Second Lebanon War") was a failed attempt to neutralize the Hezbollah threat.
The Hezbollah Special Forces are in-effect a highly trained and well-equipped Iranian commando force of at least a Brigade in size. They man and protect a large number of mostly unguided and rather crude rockets, generally Katyusha 122mm artillery rockets with a 19 mile/30km range and capable of delivering approximately 66 pounds/30kg of warheads. Additionally, Hezbollah are known to possess a considerable number of more advanced and longer range missiles. During the 2006 war Hezbollah fired approximately 4,000 rockets (95% of which were Katyshas) all utilizing only "dumb" high explosive warheads. Some Iranian build and supplied Fajr-3 and Ra'ad 1 liquid-fueled missiles were also fired. At the time of the 2006 war Hezbollah was reported to have in the range of 13,000 rockets. There are creditable reports that this number has been rebuilt and expanded upon since the end of that war.
During the 2006 war the world watched as Israeli towns were hit time and time again by the Katyushas. What was not discussed by the main stream news media was the fact that the ordinance delivered by the Katyushas was mainly harassment fire with very limited effect. The Iranian/Syrian trained and supplied Hezhollah commandos were holding back their "heavy stuff" both in terms of their longer range guided missiles capable of hitting southern Israel and most importantly warheads of strategic military importance. That is NBC (nuclear [in this case radiological] chemical and biological) and advanced-conventional warheads. They were demonstrating their ability to deliver "ordinance on target" and their ability to survive a heavy Israeli ground and air combined arms attack.
Hezhollah has the capability of loading truly strategic warheads on the large number of mostly crude older technology unguided rockets that it has. The use of advanced-conventional fuel-air explosive (FAE) warheads on the Katyushas would have had a much more profound effect in Israeli cities. The use of FAE submunitions on the larger missiles capable of hitting any target in Israel would have given Hezhollah the firepower of low-yield nuclear weapons without crossing the nuclear threshold. Coupled with the large number of missiles in Syria and those in Iran, the Hezhollah rockets posed, and continue to pose, a truly grave strategic threat to Israel if FAE warheads are used. This threat is dramatically increased if radiological ("dirty bombs"), chemical, and/or biological warheads are used.
During the late 80s I had lunch with the CEO of a US aerospace company and one of Israel's top generals. I warned the general of the military threat posed by Saddam's Scuds and related missiles armed with FAEs and radiological warheads. He assured me that the air force could locate and take out all, or almost all, Scud launchers. I responded by saying, "Look around you. How many Scuds or cruise missiles could you hide in this restaurant, with pre-surveyed launch positions just outside and knock-down walls, you could erect and launch a number of Scuds without any aircraft locating the position in time to knock it out." In the First Gulf War, Saddam continued to demonstrate his ability to launch missiles and to deliver ordinance on target over the Middle East. He held back his "heavy stuff" and we did NOT go to Baghdad until the Second Gulf War (when allied intelligence knew that Saddam had denuded himself of his radiological, chemical, and biological weapons).
FAE warheads work somewhat like a automotive engine's carburetor. They mix fuel with a much larger amount of air to create an explosion, which in the case of the car drives the camshaft but in the case of a FAE creates a rather large footprint bomb. Instead of a bomb the size of your living room sofa (like a 1,000 bomb), the fuel air vapor cloud, created by the FAE aerosol, can create a bomb the size of a city block (or even much larger if multiple guided missiles with FAE submunitions are used). FAEs use an embedded detonator to trigger the fuel air "brew" which itself results in a high overpressure blast followed by a vacuum effect. In fact the Russians refer to FAEs as "vacuum bombs". An exposed person would likely be killed by the overpressure but in any case, should a person survive the overpressure blast the vacuum effect has been known to suck the lungs right out of people. FAEs can utilize a number of liquid explosive bases, including gasoline. A gasoline FAE uses a ratio of gasoline fuel vapor to air at a 1.3% to 6% gasoline to 98.7% to 94% air mix. The FAE can be spiked with assorted agents, such as powered aluminum, to increase blast effect. The Russians have developed variations of the FAE such as a slurry-explosive warhead (a mix of a combustible liquid with solid high explosives) and a reactive-surround warhead (nitrocellulose and combustible aluminum in a thin walled container).
The massive number of Hezbollah rockets could also be outfitted with chemical warheads. It is worth noting that the joint Syrian-Iranian chemical warfare R&D and production program is perhaps the largest and most complicated on earth. Generally the Israelis have shown themselves to be prepared for chemical warfare, however a chemical war attack following closely behind a FAE attack (to open up bunkers and apartment buildings) would greater effect. While it is not necessary to utilize a rocket to deliver a biological war attack, it could be done and there is some benefit militarily to a rapid dispersal of biowar agents under the cover of conventional attacks. Radiological weapons deliver the long term (which can be hundreds of thousands of years) lethal effects of radiation without the blast effect of a nuclear bomb.
The combined military strategic capability of NBC/Advanced Conventional warheads and very large numbers of rockets operated and protected by Hezbollah, coupled with the arsenal of Syria and Iran acts as a MAD (mutually assured destruction) between Israel and Iran/Syria. Yes the Israelis can nuke the hell out of both Iran and Syria, however, they possess a fatal return punch. Hence it is very likely that any attack on Iran and it's ally Syria would first require a very serious weakening of their offensive strategic firepower by taking out the Hezbollah arsenal.
In the 2006 war, this was attempted by Lt.-General Dan Halutz, the Israeli Air Force general who was the Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Force, and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. They seriously miscalculated. The Syrians had bought a large number of very nasty, relatively low cost Russian AT-14 Kornet solid fuel anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) and the Iranian trained Hezbollah commandos dug in massive numbers of concrete bunkers and firing positions. After over 50 Merkava main battle tanks were hit, and the high tech American made warplanes and pinpoint weapons proved ineffective, the handwriting was on the wall. Either use neutron bombs or lose a large number of Israeli solders to remove the Hezbollah threat; or declare peace and walk away for the time being ~ the Israelis chose the latter.
Since the Israelis do not like being caught with their pants down, they have been spending a considerable amount of time seeking a non-nuclear military solution to the Hezbollah threat. I suspect that the solution will utilize massive numbers of FAEs. Then we shall see if the Iranian combat engineers have build the bunkers to withstand the vapors of massive numbers of FAEs (this means air tight bunkers that are very strong). The real danger point will come if either, a second non-nuclear Israeli attempt fails, or if it appears to be succeeding. If it fails, the temptation to use neutron bombs will be very high on the Israeli side. If it appears to be succeeding, the Hezbollah side (with their Iranian and Syrian backers) will be faced with the "use it or lose it" option for their strategic rocket force. Using the full force of the massive number of rockets with strategic weapons on the Israeli population would ensure a full nuclear response from the Israel Defense Force. Not using the strategic weapons would mean that a massive US/Israeli/allied attack on Iran (and perhaps Syria) would be highly likely, and the destruction of Iraq and its leadership has shown the high stakes involved.
I am reminded of an old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times". It appears that the year 2008 may be among the most interesting of times (especially in light of the Iranian global ability to use advanced biological war against its enemies).
Stirling
http://europebusines.blogspot.com/
Earl of Stirling, Hereditary Governor and Lord Lieutenant of Canada. Author of CASH FOR PEERAGES: THE SMOKING GUN (Lulu Press at www.lulu.com/content/953682). Web site: http://europebusines.blogspot.com/
'I am reminded of an old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times". It appears that the year 2008 may be among the most interesting of times (especially in light of the Iranian global ability to use advanced biological war against its enemies).'
Here is something more up-to- date.
'World is a bundle of hey. People are asses to pull. Each tugs in a different way. And the greatest of all is John Bull.'
I put a challenge to Lord Stirling: can he please not tell me about the madness he had just described but tell me how John Bull and others can prevent that. That is, of course they still are not tugging for hey.
by
Mark Sashine (42 articles, 19 quicklinks, 226 diaries, 3211 comments)
on Friday, November 16, 2007 at 7:47:42 AM
Since Lord Stirling introduced a Chinese quote in his OpEd, allow me to introduce a Buddhist quote. What Lord Stirling is describing as very horrific possibilities from the ongoing cycle of darkness, violence and hatred in the Middle East is actually a compelling argument why this gruesome cycle must be broken, not by seeing who can proclaim himself King of the Hill atop a hill (or mountain) made of skulls (which is just one more delusion anyway), but by embracing an entirely different paradigm that thus far has only been given very specious and superficial lip-service, a paradigm grounded in the teachings of Buddha and Christ. It is actually far easier to pursue peace and reconciliation once the habit sinks in, than to promote endless warfare and division, because the deeper reality is that we are all one to begin with.
From the Dhammapada (translation by Ekneth Easwaran):
From Chapter One: Twin Verses
1) Our life is shaped by our mind; we become what we think. Suffering follows an evil thought as the wheels of a cart follow the oxen that draw it.
2) Our life is shaped by our mind; we become what we think. Joy follows a pure thought like a shadow that never leaves.
3) "He was angry with me, he attacked me, he defeated me, he robbed me" - those who dwell on such thoughts will never be free from hatred.
4) "He was angry with me, he attacked me, he defeated me, he robbed me" - those who do not dwell on such thoughts will surely be free from hatred.
5) For hatred can never put an end to hatred; love alone can. This is an unalterable law. People forget that their lives will soon end. For those who remember, quarrels will come to an end.
by
Mac McKinney (40 articles, 53 quicklinks, 126 diaries, 878 comments)
on Friday, November 16, 2007 at 8:27:06 AM
In 1997 and 1998 I was busy working to establish the fourth evening national television newscast in America, designed to compete with NBC, CBS, and ABC. I had over $175 million in funding lined up from a major Wall Street investment banking firm and arrangements for almost total coverage in the local television markets throughout the United States. I had just signed a Letter of Intent to purchase the late King of Jordan's jumbo jet/state aircraft, to be used as a flying news studio (for select major braking news stories; the Israelis were going to install a conformal C-band sat link on the top of the aircraft) and was in the final stages of putting everything together, when my 42 year old wife, Michele, was found to have advanced terminal ovarian cancer (ovarian cancer is known as the "silent killer"). I canned the TV news project, which was to be known as the Third Millennium Global News, to care for her full time. She died almost a year later in July 1999. Sometime after this, I operated (in the early 2000s) a web news site by the same name. The web site was not designed to make any money and never did, it was simply something to do when I was too heartbroken to do anything else.
I did however, want to use the site and my title to push for peace in the Middle East. I proposed, on my web site, and in letters to the various national leaders of the Middle East a way towards peace. I called my concept the Stirling Proposal For Peace In The Middle East. No Arab leader even responded to my letters, not even King Hessian's son the new King of Jordan. However, Prime Minister Sharon had his National Security adviser (later to become the Israeli Ambassador to the United States) contact me personally, to let me know that my Stirling Proposal was being considered at the highest level in Israel.
Now the Stirling Proposal recommended that American and European money be used to settle, and settle generously, any and all claims by those dispossessed of their lands and property in all the wars/etc. involving Israel and her Arab neighbors. I proposed that the many billions of dollars be distributed approximately one-third in cash to the claimants, 10% to the local and national governments for infrastructure improvements, and the remainder be in the form of regulated new stock issued by Israeli high tech companies (with regular dividend payments and long term no-sale conditions) for those being compensated. In other words, I was proposing that those whose families have lost property be very well compensated but in a way that would also grow the Israeli economy and result in long term co-prosperity. I also outlined how Israeli held Syrian land could be returned to Syrian civil rule without a Syrian military presence and with an American military presence to ensure that those lands not be used for as a base of war in the next 50 or more years. I also proposed that a security fence, of a very secure high tech nature ~ a wall that nothing could cross and live without permission, be built to end the then major problem of Arab terrorism in Israel (at that time a number of buses and shopping areas were being hit by suicide bombers killing many Israeli civilians). A few months later, the "Wall" was begun by Israel and the number of suicide bombings dropped to almost nothing. However, the wider concept of using western money to settle the long standing property issues was not utilized.
I am glad that my concept of the "wall" was used to help end the terrible bombings; I am sorry and sad that the "wall" was used in a way that increased hate instead of peace and that the main thrust of the Stirling Proposal ~ more than fair compensation for all lost lands and properties and future co-prosperity ~ was not used. I have always felt that the smartest thing that Israel ever did was to use American money, in billions of dollars of yearly foreign aid transfers to Jordan and Egypt, to secure peace with these two old enemies. I have also felt that the dumbest thing that Israel has ever done was to allow domestic right wing politicians to push policies that continue a never ending war status between Israel and some of her neighbors.
There is a way out of the current Iranian nuclear "crisis". It is to not take military action but to address the fundamental issues of those disposed of land and property by Israel while still allowing Israel to exist and to do so with security. As I have noted in my earlier article, WAR ON IRAN = YOU DIE FROM BIOWAR, the Iranians already have global weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities from their advanced 21st Century biological war technology. A military capability that is at least equal to global nuclear war in its ability to kill billions of people in North American, Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere. There are already too many "genies out of the bottle" to allow a new Middle Eastern War to happen. In short, it is simply too late in human history given the large number of nations that have advanced WMD (this includes nuclear, biological and scalar war technologies) for we humans to even think about engaging in a all out war with one or more nations having WMD. Such a war will not only be the World War III that President Bush speaks of, but the Final Battle that the last book of the Bible warns of.
Stirling
by
Lord Stirling (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 73 comments)
on Friday, November 16, 2007 at 11:57:25 AM
The Stirling proposal, apparently logical and proper assumes one thing which does not seem realistic to me ( not that it is not proper)- it assumes honest brokerage of money and honest people to do that very difficult process. That was and is highly unlikely. Apparently, your Grace ( if I may) Israelis took from it the idea of the ' wall'. Now we know:) (please, do not consider this a smirk, I am sure they contemplated it since the Berlin wall, they are in majority with the Soviet mentality and even German mentality if I may). But the Arab leaders apparently know the Europeans much better and they did not consider such idea as yours seriously. Actually, they might consider it to be an encroachment attempt of the John Bull ( again:) on the territories previously owned.
Having said all that I would return to the situation with Iran. Would you please, consider, Sir, that there is NO situation WITH IRAN. There is a situation with us. We here for some unreasonable reason want to attack a country which poses no threat to us. It poses a threat to Israel? OK, let's make a treaty of mutual defense with Israel ( we do not have one) and that would guarantee Israelis's safety. You surely are smart enough, Sir to understand that in reality our anti-Iran rhetoric is the result of irrationaality here, not there. It is time to look in the mirror. It is time to understand ( and you seem surely to understand) that the primary enemy of humanity sits right here, is white as a snow and is a Christian.
And once and for all don't you think that the first thing anyone has to do when trying to help people is .. not to interfere until they ask?
by
Mark Sashine (42 articles, 19 quicklinks, 226 diaries, 3211 comments)
on Friday, November 16, 2007 at 12:26:25 PM
