I have served as a consultant to three very high tech aerospace firms.My specialty is conceptualizing advanced warfare especially as it relates to new cutting edge advanced weapon systems.What I see unfolding with a war on Iran is the most frightening set of circumstances I have ever seen; and I have been involved in advanced theoretical weaponry strategy and design for over 20 years.
Sometime in the weeks to months ahead, there will be a war launched against Iran. The war may be started by Israel, or by the United States, or by a NATO/EU/US embargo, or by some 'false flag' attack. What matters is that it will begin; and where it will take the world.
Regardless if the war begins with a limited number of air strikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets, or if an all-out several thousand target attack begins from day one, the probabilities of the war becoming a major regional war within 48 hours are 90% or higher.
The Iranians will simply not allow Israeli and/or American military forces to attack its territory without a major response. Any significant counter-attack on Israel and/or American regional bases will trigger a much greater counter-response.
The Iranians have equipped, paid for, and trained a massive unguided rocket and guided missile force in Lebanon (the largest such force in human history). These missiles are in place as a MAD force (a MAD ~ mutually assured destruction ~ force is one that is a doomsday force; established to prevent the use of overwhelming military force by allowing a return "punch" of overwhelming military destructive force upon one's enemy). The total number of missiles and rockets in Lebanon are variously estimated at between 40,000 and 110,000. While many are unguided Katyusha rockets, many are longer ranged guided missiles. All are operated by Hezbollah Special Forces launch teams.
The Hezbollah Special Forces are in effect a highly trained and well-equipped Iranian commando force of at least a Brigade in size. They man and protect a large number of mostly unguided and rather crude rockets, generally Katyusha 122mm artillery rockets with a 19 mile/30km range and capable of delivering approximately 66 pounds/30kg of warheads. Additionally, Hezbollah are known to possess a considerable number of more advanced and longer range missiles. During the 2006 war Hezbollah fired approximately 4,000 rockets (95% of which were Katyushas) all utilizing only "dumb" high explosive warheads. Some Iranian-built and supplied Fajr-3 and Ra'ad 1 liquid-fueled missiles were also fired. It is believed that the larger and longer range missiles are directly under the control of Syrian and Iranian officers.
The combination of short to medium range rockets and guided missiles in Lebanon, and the longer range guided missiles in Syria, the smaller number of rockets and missiles in the West Bank and Gaza, and the longer range guided missiles in Iran present a massive throw weight of warheads aimed at Israel.
The 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War (called the Second Lebanon War in Israel) was an attempt by Israel at eliminating the MAD counter-force in Lebanon. It was an attempt that failed. The Syrians had purchased (and supplied to Hezbollah) a large number of very nasty, relatively low cost Russian AT-14 Kornet solid fuel anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), and the Iranian-trained Hezbollah commandos dug in massive numbers of concrete bunkers and firing positions. After over 50 Merkava main battle tanks were hit, and the high tech American-made warplanes and pinpoint weapons proved ineffective, the handwriting was on the wall. Either use neutron bombs or lose a large number of Israeli solders to remove the Hezbollah threat; or declare peace and walk away for the time being ~ the Israelis chose the latter.
It now appears that Israel has given up on the idea of a ground assault to remove the many rocket and missile launchers in Lebanon. A senior Israeli general has resigned with the complaint that the Army is not training sufficiently to fight in Lebanon. The alternative is the use of FAE (fuel air explosive) technology weapons and neutron bombs (a type of nuclear weapon that produces a higher short-term radiological output and less blast output than normal nuclear weapons).
Any use of such WMD by the Israeli Army on the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon will likely automatically trigger the use of WMD warheads on whatever rockets/missiles remain operational (if their use has not already been authorized due to the nature and scope of Israeli and/or American attacks on Iran).
The bottom line of this is that Israel will face a truly massive number of rockets and missiles from Lebanon with radiological, chemical, biological and FAE "weapons of mass destruction" warheads. Additionally, a sizable number of such weapons/warheads will be fired from Gaza and the West Bank. The Syrians will be using larger, more accurate guided missiles to shower WMD upon Israel as will the Iranians. To counter this, the Israelis will be using their Green Pine Radar system and a combination of Israeli and American anti-missile missiles. They will have good success in knocking down many incoming missiles but the sheer number of incoming weapons will totally overload all defensive measures.
Large parts of Israel will be contaminated with radiation with extremely long half-lives (many tens of thousands of years in some cases), with a mix of chemical, FAE, and biological nightmares thrown in for good measure. Total deaths will amount to one-third to one-half of the Israeli population with a large additional number being injured.
The Israeli response will be the nuclear annihilation of Syria, Iran, and parts of Lebanon with many tens of millions killed. Expect to see every city of any size destroyed. There will be insufficient people left in Syria, Iran, and large parts of Lebanon to even bury the dead. Radiation will spread around the world from the nuclear bombs.
Iranian sleeper teams in North America and western Europe will begin to "seed" the populations of these areas with a number (perhaps in the several dozens) of different man made killer viruses. People in movie theaters, churches, synagogues, shopping malls, subway stations, airports, etc., will be exposed without anyone knowing it at the time, to these advanced biowar viruses. About nine to ten days later the computer reporting systems in the western countries will begin to report back strange illnesses. That will trigger a host of measures to contain the advanced biowar viruses but it will simply be too late to prevent a massive outbreak of horrific illnesses. International travel and trade will effectively stop. People will be ordered to stay home from work and school with only critical job holders being allowed on the streets. Hospitals will be overcome with sick and dying people of all ages. The medical community will be among the first to die off. Where temporary hospitals are established in school gyms and other areas, the cross infection of several different genetically engineered viruses will ensure 100% mortality of everyone in the temporary hospitals.
In the event that the neo-con nations have sought to expand the Georgia war by new attacks on Russian forces or by creating some naval incident in the Black Sea, the probabilities of an quick expansion into a all-out Third World War involving Russian and NATO nuclear weapons will be at approximately 50%. Even without a global total war being initiated, Russia is apt to "sweep" the Black Sea of NATO ships with considerable loss of life on both sides.
The world will be in the worst economic depression in history as global trade will be halted for at least several months due to fears of the spread of the various advanced biowar viruses. If Israel releases the Arab-specific designer advanced biowar viruses that many claim she has, the Saudis are apt to fire their Chinese IRBMs (intermediate range ballistic missiles) and send their very well-equipped air force against Israel with the small number of nuclear weapons that they possess (they have funded the Pakistani nuclear weapons program and have several Pakistani made nuclear devices). Of course, what is left of the Israeli forces will respond with additional nuclear attacks, this time on Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations for good measure.
In North America and western Europe the total number of civilians, after two months of advanced biowar illnesses, is apt to be at least a third of the population ~ a total death count of well over 200 million persons. Despite the best efforts of all nations, the man-engineered super killer mutant viruses will spread throughout the world causing total numbers of perhaps a billion or more to die.
The after effect of all of this may well lead to even more war as the non-neo-con nations will be so incensed at the massive loss of life of their citizens that total global war may be unstoppable.
Stirling
http://europebusines.blogspot.com/
Earl of Stirling, Hereditary Governor and Lord Lieutenant of Canada. Author of CASH FOR PEERAGES: THE SMOKING GUN (Lulu Press at www.lulu.com/content/953682). Web site: http://europebusines.blogspot.com/
In such a doomsday scenario the purpose of FEMA camps becomes clear; to quarantine the sick, the dying, and citizens who are disruptive to marshall law.
by
Shelby (1 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 27 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 8:42:56 AM
Shelby, it is very frighting and sad to say a most likely outcome of an attack on Iran. That is why I write on the subject and why people should be demanding that their Senators and Congressmen exert pressure to stop the Bush/Cheney gang before it is too late.
Stirling
by
Lord Stirling (25 articles, 0 quicklinks, 4 diaries, 141 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 8:39:22 AM
Comment from Ratings: This sounds like a horror scenario only hollywood would invent. The fact that a respected expert like Lord Stirling posits it makes me nauseous. If our prospects are as bad as you describe, the U.S. election is irrelevant because it will all trigger on GWB's watch, and we simply have no defense. Is there no hope? Are we destined to leak defeated back into the gene pool? Will we all be frogs---nope, the frogs are dying, silly me---will we all be carrion beetles in the next paradigm? This thought could drive one to drink, and why the hell not?
by
Larry Vickers (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 2 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 8:55:02 AM
We're dealing with a government consultant whose job may well require them to spin out incredibly obtuse and convoluted counter-intelligence simply to keep the fires of fear well-stoked.
Rich people benefit from WAR, folks, not the poor majority. And if you're making less than several million dollars per year just by sitting on your butt with a name you were born into, you're poor.
Apocalyptic thinkers need to take a deep breath and remember that human beings are connected to a source-mind that is far larger than anything that could be contained on this tiny speck of dust safely kept removed from the rest of Life's other projects.
What FDR said during his tenure continues to hold true: the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
by
Stanley Dipschtick (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 2 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 9:57:17 AM
I was wondering how long it would take a freeper to trod this out... you win the prize! FDR said that about foreign enemies of the time, not the lunatics leading us today. If you are not afraid of Neo Con maniacs and their delusional, self destructive lack of judgement, then you are a better American than me.
by
Shelby (1 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 27 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 10:09:08 AM
Israel has been snake bit by their own guilt. They fail to realize or recognize that much of the Arab response and reaction to their behavior comes from Israel's willingness to scorch the Earth over simple disagreements.
The Arabs would probably grow bored and ignore Israel's drama-queen theatrics if it weren't for the fact that Israel continues to commit genocide inside their neatly contained ghettos.
Conformity is beautiful thing when it happens spontaneously -- it leads to better communication between people and this leads to a more peaceful lifestyle within the self-conforming community.
When conformity is either legislated or its boundaries are enforced by the community, conformity becomes simple oppression. Recognizing the difference between oppressing a minority and protecting the community from poisonous ideology is much more of an art than the science it could be.
The human community makes it much easier to simply oppress non-conformance than to start up a new branch of communication science where the content of an individual's contribution to society can be assessed and appropriately (peacefully) channelled.
Until then it is simply cheaper to assess Arabs, certain Christians and other ideologies not willing to lick Israel's boots as "unclean" and dump these individuals into ghettos or prison camps where their contributions to society can be prejudicially scrutinized for the rest of the individual's life.
Israel has a right to exist as a nation-state. But by the same token, Arab nation states have a right to exist as well.
This problem with Jews being paranoid about marginalization has a VERY long history and dates back to the time of the Egyptians. I can see American blacks experiencing the same sort of "immune" response among the population at large and, perhaps, for the same reason: no one likes it when their slave becomes their master.
To which I would suggest, "tough shit. Don't rely on slaves to do your work for you."
I'm sorry if certain people find Jews to be obnoxious...they can be...but taken in context, human beings can be genocidal. Obnoxious is not the same thing. Deal with it...you helped bring it about and you help sustain it.
I'm sorry if Jews think the rest of the world is not up to their standards...it isn't. It's a universal problem that we find a way to enslave people to insulate us from experiencing, and those people learn how best to deal with this sub-par reality by coming together as a community of like minds.
The problem, then as now, is not Arabs versus Jews or attacker versus victim...the problem is landowner versus serf, rich versus poor, the clever versus the naive.
I suppose until we learn to overlook our differences as people we will continue to look for ways to exploit each other, piss each other off, and look for reconciliation through violence.
Hang the rich.
by
Stanley Dipschtick (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 2 comments)
on Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 11:36:08 AM
Larry, it is very scary but that is why we need to take action while we can. The neo-cons are rolling the dice with our lives and with the future of the entire world. They know that the Iranians hired out-of-work ex-Soviet biowar experts years ago and have a top advanced biowar program. Just as they know that the Russians were not the ones that started the war in Georgia. Contact your congress critters; demand that they put pressure on the White House; that and pray.
Stirling
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Lord Stirling (25 articles, 0 quicklinks, 4 diaries, 141 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 10:11:54 AM
I read your very sobering article last night at Rense.com.
This all too real scenario which could very well play out if the US continues it's bellicosity, fomenting this senseless chaos and hegemony throughout the Middle East and now Eurasia. Because you know dam well that Russia certainly isn't going to tolerate this pernicious game that's being played.
Back here in the US everything is splended, just ask the corporate media. they'll tell you. Banks are failing and the country is tittering on the brink of a financial disaster. God forbid that this maniacal regime along with Israel, does decide to launch an unprovoked attack on Iran. The credulous and very ignorant American people (sheep) don't have a clue as to what will then transpire.
If I could take a moment to mention that our neighbors Iranian brother-n-law who has been a US citizen now for many years, at one time he and his family who still resides in Tehran, they loved George Bush (imagine that) they truly believed that Bush Co. would help them to escape the oppressive Iranian regime.
This gentleman has stated to me on numerous occasions that the Iranian people are a peaceful people and they do not want war. Eight long years was enough (thanks to the US) and that he and his family members back in Iran are very worried and rightfully so! He's stated that what use to take about a minute to telephone them now takes well over five. Someone is listening, of course. He also lamented that if the US foolishly attacks Iran (he honestly believes they won't, I do hope he's right) that the Iranian people would unite, and unleash a hell upon America like none ever seen.
Cooler heads had better prevail. Are there any though?
by
Munich (0 articles, 74 quicklinks, 13 diaries, 919 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 11:58:36 AM
In the end Nancy Pelosi may go down in history as the enabler who helped cause all this horror by not stopping Bush when she could (impeachment anyone?).
by
Archie (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1285 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 12:04:42 PM
Pelosi doesn't want to find a horses head in her bed. She'll continue to play the game, a game which could destroy our country. I despise this woman! No integrity what-so-ever. NONE! She is well aware of the tyranny that surrounds her and that her country is out of control, but instead of upholding the Constitution, she's turned a blind eye and has chosen to protect the beast. So very sad for America and most Americans don't even give a rat's ass. I blame this reticent and complicit corporate media, who continues to feed us the same mendacity and spin, of how the US can do no wrong.
Country first, right? Yeah! And F' everyone else. U S A ! U S A ! U S A ! . . .
by
Munich (0 articles, 74 quicklinks, 13 diaries, 919 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 12:36:37 PM
No sooner than Rep Dennis Kucinich presented his H.Res.799 Cheney Impeachment Bill on the House Floor as "a privileged resolution" Link CLICK HERE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJYbgouqlMw, a cowardly Democratic Majority Leader Rep Steny Hoyer appeared at the podium and called for a vote to "table" the Bill immediately, thereby effectively "killing the Bill" and voting his NAY on impeachment Link CLICK HERE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kl7vpVdzIL4
The vote failed, with republicans joining democrats not to "table" the Bill, then Hoyer quickly moves to a vote to send the Bill to the House Judiciary Committee to languish and finally expire at the end of the second session of the 110th Democratic Congress. The Bill then passes to Committee.
IF Hoyer had mustered his democratic majority for impeachment, Cheney would have gotten himself impeached that very same afternoon with the Constitution and the rule of law clear winners at the end of the day.
No scrutiny whatsoever of Bushco on Hoyer's watch guaranteed. On the contrary, Hoyer went on the record as supporting giving his Republican colleagues all they want and even more than they ask for proving that his democratic majority in Congress would and will do everything and more to assist Bushco and their minions in every way possible.
Republicans then became an effective opposition party, while the Democrats remain their wannabees, their majority notwithstanding.
Enough to make good democrats go republican with the next vote.
When what's described comes to pass it's the likes of Hoyer who made it all possible.
by
Gene Cappa (36 articles, 0 quicklinks, 62 diaries, 262 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 12:21:29 PM
Like any war the best way to win is to not fight it.
Since all of our carriers are equipped with nuclear weapons they could also hit in a combined 'preemption' attack with fuel air bombs which are tremendously devastating and the second most powerful bombs after nuclear. Any way you look at it a war begets more war when it is unprovoked. The Theocons in charge are of the Crusader mentality but with the war weapons of the 21st century. A dangerous combination. Also Israel will suffer no matter what because the fallout would be driven to them by the winds in the region. Then there is the Sampson Option if the theocratic nationalist fanatics controlling the country of Israel decide to commit national suicide/mass murder. All in all better to no do it. It would help if the people in charge of all this didn't believe in some kind of after life. They wouldn't be so intent on dieing and killing the rest of us.
Too bad we can't overthrow the Dominionist cabal ruling and ruining our country to stop this mass suicide. We might have a chance as a species to survive.
by
nightgaunt (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 262 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 1:12:09 PM
If we're all going to die, Why even bother to get out of bed
This is too horrible to comtemplate. I can't function as a rational human being knowing this is coming. I doubt it can be stopped. The mass media have the American people by the proverbial throat and they feed these ignoramuses what they want them to think and most of them go right along. I am depressed when I talk to every day people and see how much they believe everything they are told. Only in a country as deeply ignorant as the US could someone like Sarah Palin come to national prominence. Maybe it will do us all a favor to bring all this on. There is no hope anyway as rigged as everything is by the oligarchy and their lapdog media and willing slave public. They are too stupid to take warning. They wouldn't in Iraq and look at the mess. Iraq will be a walk in the park compared to any attack on Iran, as you say.
by
JOHN LORENZ (17 articles, 89 quicklinks, 66 diaries, 220 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 5:23:56 PM
Does this mean it's time to max-out the credit cards?
90+% chance, within the next two months? Think Obama can save us from this? This should make the swearing-in ceremony something special. "Do you Barrack Obama swear to - BA-BOOM!!!"
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Mr M (4 articles, 0 quicklinks, 20 diaries, 1781 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 6:26:26 PM
Do Not Give In To Zealous Contemplation.It Piques The Mind But Can Destroy Motivation.
Panic Makes Predicament.
There Is More Awareness In The Masses Than One Would Believe From The Media. The Bread Has Been Coming Less As Of Late And The Wave Of Desperation Grows.
As soon as I know the war has started I will be bundling my family off to the cottage with sufficient staples to last us several months. After that who knows?
by
Archie (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1285 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 10:27:39 PM
9/11 got too exposed, too many people know...they need a new type of false flag event. A better approach for them (neo-cons) would be to launch a bio attack. They could potentially blame anyone, which could come in handy now that the US gov is posturing against Russia as well as Iran. Who would really know where it came from. Once/if this happens, they will unleash what will be armageddon.
The question is the timing and circumstance. I think the world is watching as to what happens in the US elections as this could dictate things. I'm sure there intelligence is just as good as ours and they could possibly take pre-emptive measures...really, anything could happen.
by
Son of our Father's (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 21 comments)
on Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 11:14:27 PM
A part of this chilling scenario relies on Iran having access to potent, lethal man-made pathogens. Although a handful of Western univesities or government labs might have the means to create these diseases, what evidence exists that Iran does as well?
by
Bob Jones (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 14 comments)
on Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 4:25:43 AM
23 comments
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