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July 25, 2007 at 03:17:56
Oil Junkies for Jesus vs the Oil Crisis by Len Hart Page 1 of 2 page(s) |
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In 1956, geophysicist, M. King Hubbert, working at the Shell research lab in Houston, TX predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Others predicted a peak occurring right about now. For his efforts, Hubbert was pilloried by oil experts and economists. Nevertheless, the 70's are remembered less for Disco Duck than for the long lines at service stations. The Arab Oil Embargo had driven home a point that the US had become an oil junkie nation. The US partnership with Arab oil producers was always a strange marriage of fundamentalist Christians from Texas and equally fundamentalist Muslims from the far flung deserts of the Middle East, primarily Saudi Arabia.
Amid long lines, hot tempers and high prices, the era of cheap energy was over by the end of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, the so-called Yom Kippur War. The situation is complicated by what is conveniently and politically called "world terrorism" and the suspicion that the Bush administration turned a blind eye to the flow of "petro-dollars" finding their way into Saudi coffers and eventually into the hands of terrorists and, perhaps, bin Laden.
In the early days of the Iraq war, the moral implications of this were easily assuaged: just stick a flaq on your SUV, wave a yellow ribbon from your truck!
Americans are just barely aware that they pay about one-third the price Europeans pay for gasoline! But you have to credit the GOP with resourcefulness. The Bush administration delivered a message to the faithful: war in Iraq will result in lower prices at the pump even as the official line denied that the US attack and invasion of Iraq had anything at all to do with oil. That is revisionist history. The record of US Ambassador April Glaspie's interview with Saddam Hussein on the eve of his attack of Kuwait proves conclusively that Hussein's "problems" with the Bush family began when he tried to lower the price of oil.
Apparently the nation bought the GOP line. Alternative fuels, green energy and efficient cars were no longer "in". It was not always so. The famous Offshore Technology Conference held in Houston during the oil embargo was dominated by talk of Solar Energy, Offshore Thermal Energy Conversion, and Wind Energy. The brightest minds from MIT, Harvard, and Cambridge were there --modeling the economics of it all.
It's easy to find in the 1970's the growing antipathy between big oil and the Democratic party. President Carter got caught in the cross hairs as perhaps JFK had about ten years earlier when he promised to put an end to a Texas oil industry sacred cow --the Oil Depletion Allowance. But only a conspiracy theorist would connect that fact with his murder in Dallas, TX. Carter's advisors, however, favored lifting price caps but his political advisors nixed the idea. Clearly, American consumers were fed up with higher prices but absurdly long lines were the only alternative. Even now consumers may not have it both ways.
Energy Secretary James R. Schlesinger favored lifting Federal price caps and doing away with what he called the "government's Byzantine allocation system". His proposal, he said, would go a long way toward spurring conservation while allocating scarce fuel more efficiently. Schlesinger said it would eliminate the long lines at the gas pump. It would mean the end of dirt cheap gasoline. When Carter over ruled Schlesinger the press reported that the President had refused to eliminate Federal Price Caps against the advice of his own energy secretary. [See: Merrill Sheils, "The Energy Plan," Newsweek, July 23, 1979] In Houston, MIT energy economist Morris Adelman would tell us reporters: 'All in all, it was a very weak, pallid performance,' said MIT energy economist Morris Adelman. 'The failure to decontrol will cost us a good deal.'
The future may be seen in our own past. It is simplistic to say merely that all the world's oil supplies will simply run dry, though oil supplies are finite to be sure. It is, rather, a matter of economics. Pennsylvania, for example, was America's first oil producing state --but Pennsylvania hasn't figured prominently in the oil industry in over a century. Oil seemed limitless; after all, it took some 60 years to consume the first 10% --a curve that has continually gotten steeper. Later --the Spindletop gushers in Texas startled the world only to be exploited and abandoned in a period of some twenty years or less.
Then the pattern repeated itself in West Texas. On the ranches just outside of Odessa/Midland, there is evidence that the robber barons of big oil simply walked away, abandoning wells to despoil the environment when it became no longer economically viable to operate them.
It ceased to be easy. That may explain why George W. Bush had to settle for stealing an election. In its first stages, petroleum exploration is a straight-forward technical procedure and, indeed, it was so easy wildcatters used to call it "land speculation with cash flow". Just shoot a modern seismic "net" across a basin and let the soundings delineate the significant prospects. The largest oil and gas fields are also the biggest and easiest targets; it was so easy in its early days that even an idiot could have made money. The fact that George W. Bush's ventures went belly-up twice is significant. Every other idiot was making money.
Shrub failed to find oil amid plenty but he did find "the Lord" in a hell hole --Odessa/Midland. By that time, however, getting rich in oil had become more complicated. Simply, the cost of producing oil outstripped oil's value. What happened in Pennsylvania, Beaumont (Spindletop), Odessa/Midland will one day happen to Saudi Arabia, The Persian Gulf, and Russia. The Arabs --inventors of Algebra --know this even if the blythe SUV-driving American idiot does not.
The demand for oil will increase from about eighty million barrels per day to about 125 million barrels per day by 2030; in the meantime, OPEC oil production will level off in 2014, if not sooner. A steep decline will begin in 2016 from which oil production will never recover. A big crunch is very nearly here if the shortfall isn't made up.
In the meantime, Halliburton, Unocal, Chevron rush to enrich themselves with Republican assistance, even complicity. The War in Iraq is just a part of the grand chessboard albeit a key one. Should Bush abandon Iraq, the American oil industry faces a crisis. It is a last desperate, ruthless grasp that has plunged the world into a "war on terror" and too many Americans have been asked to die for Halliburton --not America!
Who is the genius behind the preduction thatt bears his name? In 1969, Hubbert skipped Woodstock to do math. Hubbert suspected that a graph of world oil production would follow a standard statistical norm and his findings are not unlike those of Malthus who said essentially the same thing of arithmetic food production in populations which increase geometrically. Students of elementary statistics will know it as a "bell curve". Hubbert was not appreciated in 1969 --the dawning of the Age of Aquarius. Nonetheless, he plotted a graph which predicted a peak of oil production followed by a precipitous decline. The future is now:
Hubbert is now said by experts to have made the "...only truly valid scientific projection of future oil production." A report by the Novum Corporation bluntly states that Hubbert was correct when he forecast oil production peaking in 1969. Since that time, domestic oil production has declined to within 5% of Hubbert's 1956 predictions.
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Lets Pass a Law...
Above and beyond an inital modest return on the price of gasoline, let the rest of the gasoline profits go towards non oil consumption related products. by Alessandro Machi (13 articles, 0 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 174 comments) on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007 at 9:45:07 AM  (0+)
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Reply: And While We Are At It..................
let's also cut the tax on gasoline in half! That would certainly help the working class more than anything else. The rich don't care what a gallon of gasoline costs, but I sure do. by larry booth (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 303 comments) on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007 at 12:24:31 PM (0+)
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WWIII
Well, that's all well and good --but the point is that the scarcity of oil will be the cause of world war III if it has not been already. Taxes one way or the other won't stop that. by Len Hart (134 articles, 175 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 555 comments) on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007 at 12:41:27 PM (0+)
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Junkie means junkie
Good Len. The important thing, (dear friends, humankind, and countryfolk), is knowing and thinking to act in the face of an oil junkie, by the same guidelines for acting in the face of a heroin junkie. They cannot reason. They cannot help themselves reform. Your laws mean nothing to affect their behavior. Isolation and abstinence from their mind-altering, behavior-crippling drug is the only treatment. Quarantine. no cars, airplanes, plastics ... the rest of the list. Junkie only knows one thing: More Junk. --- Also, keep an eye on your mirror, that is you in there, remember to use the buddy system. by meremark (1 articles, 3 quicklinks, 30 diaries, 572 comments [22 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007 at 2:17:39 PM (0+)
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LENHART
THIS IS FROM MY ARTICLE OF SOME WEEKS AGO; by Professor Emeritus Peter Bagnolo (144 articles, 1 quicklinks, 95 diaries, 1317 comments [5 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007 at 4:22:01 PM (0+)
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This didn't work, Try again
by Professor Emeritus Peter Bagnolo (144 articles, 1 quicklinks, 95 diaries, 1317 comments [5 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007 at 4:22:57 PM (0+)
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The People own the oil
I'm right with you on using the profits from oil to pay for research of alternative energy. Does anyone really see ww3 coming? I don't. As far as Israel goes. it was the Lamb who said when Israel is surrounded by troops, you will know her desolations are at hand. They killed their last king 2000 years ago. I'd like to see us scare the hell out of them, for they will not be forsaken. 57basque@comcast.net by Carolinanickel (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 17 comments) on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007 at 5:01:23 PM (0+)
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It may already be here.
It may not be coming...some experts have said it's already here. check out my blog. Is This World War III. An excerpt: "Are we in the midst of World War III? Or is this merely the third global battle in a One Hundred Years' War? The debate had already begun by the time Newt Gingrich recently opined that the current conflict is World War III. More recently, Media Matters for America noted that CNN Headline News host Glenn Beck began his program of July 12 with a discussion with former CIA officer Robert Baer by saying "we've got World War III to fight"! He warned of an impending apocalypse. On July 13, in a similar discussion, Beck said of World War III: 'It is here.' " by Len Hart (134 articles, 175 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 555 comments) on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007 at 5:07:41 PM (0+)
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Reply: THE OIL CRISIS?
This is and always was a war for oil. i said this from the very start of this crappy war in Iraq. George Bush has LIED TO AMERICA, from thr very start of this war. THE BAD PART IS THAT OUR YOUTH HAVE DIED ON HIS LIES. I dont understand way america and its people are so DUM? nobody has the guts to tell this fool that he has lied about everything. HERE WE HAVE WEALTHY OIL CORPORATIONS AND BUSH FAMILY AND OTHERS MAKING huge profits in a war. THIS IS WAR PROFITEERING. all the bastards that started this war for oil should be tried in a war court and convicted of war crimes, and TREASON. AMERICA'S GREED FOR MONEY BY RICH PEOPLE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE DONT CARE ABOUT YOU OR YOUR PEOPLE. BY GEORGE BUSH AND DICK CHENEY, ALONG WITH CARL ROVE AND DON RUMSFIELD. AMERICA HAS CREATED A MONSTER. by vincent passiatore (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 185 comments [2 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2007 at 11:40:49 PM (0+)
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Reply: WW3
Peace has always been a better solution than WAR. You quote Glenn Beck, who is a self proclaimed rodeo clown, about the start of WW3. If there is a WW3, people like you will be the reason for it. You also seem to imply that if we didn't back Israel, things would get worse for America. If the World would scare the hell out of Israel, they might wake up to the fact they killed thier last king. by Carolinanickel (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 17 comments) on Thursday, Jul 26, 2007 at 9:47:59 AM (0+)
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http://www.sugarcitycane.com
Ethanol is the answer, along with some sort of electric steam engine design that will give us the power needed in replacing diesel and gasoline. It will be the 2nd Industrial Age revolution. Forget using nuclear. The Bushies really have not thought it out quite clearly when they began this terror war, using it to swipe oil from Iraq. Really if they did not pursue the terror side of things, nuclear which has more money value than oil could have been used to develop some sort of transportation alternative. But now...forget it. they will never use nuclear energy or even batteries in such cars that can be torn apart to make a homemade nuke. Ethanol is the only real answer. It takes less energy to produce than using hydrogen, and hydrogen has it's major drawbacks. Tank size is to large, distribution, fuelcells have a membrane osmosis problem with temperature changes. Hydrogen just is not an option. And we need to think about the worlds energies needs not just junkie ole USA. I think Ethanol can be grown on the ocean on the equator. The equator has no major storms, hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones, etc. Although strong winds happen, satellite warnings can signal shiptrains to move from the area. The Auqtic rafts can be built from Electro Accretion methods developed by BioRock Corporation. http://www.biorock.net I have been trying to get this going, but how? I have no money. Where to go..Who wants to help me? Who wants to begin the 2nd Industrial Age? I am willing. Hope to hear from someone about how to proceed. my site: http://www.sugarcitycane.com keep the faith and hope and never give up. DJ. CEO: Charcoal Ethanol Organization by Dom Jermano (20 articles, 0 quicklinks, 40 diaries, 930 comments) on Thursday, Jul 26, 2007 at 12:14:15 AM (0+)
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Alternatives
Ya ethanole is in our future. Putting solar cells on our roofs to plug electric cars into is in our future too. 57basque@comcast.net by Carolinanickel (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 17 comments) on Thursday, Jul 26, 2007 at 8:21:39 AM (0+)
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History is about to repeat itself
Back in 2000, Saddam decided he would only accept payment for oil in Euros instead of dollars. The U.N. voted to approve this plan. Then BushCo vetoed this plan rather severely, and now Iran has told the Japanese that they would only accept Yen for oil payments, instead of dollars. See where this is going? So the need for impeachment proceedings should commence ASAP. As long as Bush retains the power of being the CinC, nothing can be done to avert this insane fiasco. by Chuck Garner (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 118 comments) on Thursday, Jul 26, 2007 at 12:00:02 PM (0+)
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Reply: Re: "History is about to repeat itself"
And history always repeats itself. The oil crucn alone is worrisome but coupled with a fatal weakness in the dollar is something most people would prefer not thinking about. Good post and points. Thanks Diogenes by Len Hart (134 articles, 175 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 555 comments) on Thursday, Jul 26, 2007 at 12:53:30 PM (0+)
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Reply: Not much has changed in 200 or 2000 years
If America knew the truth of these days, people would want to (Don't do it) stone the leaders of its Churches who say things like people being raptured, and worse things than the 20th century. I don't know all the answers, but if the whole world lined up against Israel, we might just wake them up to the fact that they killed their last king. I hope someone out there sees what i mean. Otherwise these thought will be deleted. by Carolinanickel (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 17 comments) on Thursday, Jul 26, 2007 at 7:36:01 PM (0+)
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Hardened clay houses
Maybe I missed the link to 'hardened clay houses, so you could provide one (again?)I'd really appreciate it. I'm so tired of seeing people, after having their house burn or destroyed by tornadoes or hurricanes, building another stick-built house. This is, by definition, an act of insanity, yet the county or city building codes prohibit erecting something more intelligent. I've designed a modular double-shelled sphere, which is meant to take advantage of the ambient ground temperature, be fire, flood, wind and insurance company proof. by Chuck Garner (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 118 comments) on Thursday, Jul 26, 2007 at 1:34:54 PM (0+)
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