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Poll: Obama Ahead of Clinton in PA

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Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has taken the lead over Hillary Clinton 45-43 in Pennsylvania, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.

It’s a remarkable turn around from PPP’s last Pennsylvania poll, conducted two and a half weeks ago, that showed Clinton with a 26 point lead in the state. That poll was released at the height of the Jeremiah Wright controversy and the day before Obama’s major speech on race in Philadelphia. Obama has been trending upward in national polling and in many state level polls since then and this survey reflects that pattern.

“In the last few weeks there has been increasing attention given to the fact that a continuing divisive Democratic nomination fight could hurt the party’s chances of defeating John McCain this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The major movement in Obama’s direction in Pennsylvania could be an indication that Democrats in that state think it’s time to wrap it up.”

Obama is narrowing the gap with white voters, trailing just 49-38, while maintaining his customary significant advantage with black voters. He leads that group 75-17.

Obama also leads among all age groups except senior citizens, with whom Clinton has a 50-34 advantage. The poll shows the standard gender gap with Obama leading by 15 points among men while trailing by 10 points with women.

PPP surveyed 1224 likely Democratic primary voters on March 31st and April 1st. The survey’s margin of errors is +/- 2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Public Policy Polling had the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for the Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Wisconsin, as well as the closest numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio.

Q1 The Democratic candidates still running for President are Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. If the primary was today, who would you vote for? If you would vote for Hillary Clinton, press 1. If for Barack Obama, press 2. If you’re undecided press 3.
Clinton.................... .43%
Obama................... .45%
Undecided.............. .13%

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Q2 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is most important to you? The War in Iraq, education, the economy and jobs, taxes, moral or family values, health care, or immigration. If the War in Iraq is most important, press 1. If education, press 2. If the economy and jobs, press 3. If taxes, press 4. If moral and family values, press 5. If health care, press 6. If immigration, press 7. If some other issue is most important, press 8.

War in Iraq ............ 29%
Education .............. 7%
Economy and jobs. 48%
Taxes .................... 2%
2%
Moral and family
values....................
Health care............ 8%
Immigration ........... 1%
Other ..................... 2%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Women .................. .55%
Men..................... .45%

Q4 If you are white, press 1, if African-American, press 2. If other, press 3.
White ..................... .79%
African American .......... .16%
Other...................... . 5%

Q5 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65, press 3. If older than 65, press 4.
18-29...................... .16%
30-45...................... .25%
46-65...................... .35%
Older than 65 ............. .24%
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The original press release is at publicpolicypolling.com

 

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Public Policy Polling is riding a new wave of polling technology called Interactive Voice Response or IVR. Just as polling changed from mail-in surveys and door-to-door interviewers to live telephone interviewers, the industry is now evolving into (more...)
 

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Poll: Obama Ahead of Clinton in PA