Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has taken the lead over Hillary Clinton 45-43 in Pennsylvania, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.
It’s a remarkable turn around from PPP’s last Pennsylvania poll, conducted two and a half weeks ago, that showed Clinton with a 26 point lead in the state. That poll was released at the height of the Jeremiah Wright controversy and the day before Obama’s major speech on race in Philadelphia. Obama has been trending upward in national polling and in many state level polls since then and this survey reflects that pattern.
“In the last few weeks there has been increasing attention given to the fact that a continuing divisive Democratic nomination fight could hurt the party’s chances of defeating John McCain this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The major movement in Obama’s direction in Pennsylvania could be an indication that Democrats in that state think it’s time to wrap it up.”
Obama is narrowing the gap with white voters, trailing just 49-38, while maintaining his customary significant advantage with black voters. He leads that group 75-17.
Obama also leads among all age groups except senior citizens, with whom Clinton has a 50-34 advantage. The poll shows the standard gender gap with Obama leading by 15 points among men while trailing by 10 points with women.
PPP surveyed 1224 likely Democratic primary voters on March 31st and April 1st. The survey’s margin of errors is +/- 2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Public Policy Polling had the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for the Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Wisconsin, as well as the closest numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio.
Q1 The Democratic candidates still running for President are Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. If the primary was today, who would you vote for? If you would vote for Hillary Clinton, press 1. If for Barack Obama, press 2. If you’re undecided press 3. Clinton.................... .43% Obama................... .45% Undecided.............. .13%
Q2 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is most important to you? The War in Iraq, education, the economy and jobs, taxes, moral or family values, health care, or immigration. If the War in Iraq is most important, press 1. If education, press 2. If the economy and jobs, press 3. If taxes, press 4. If moral and family values, press 5. If health care, press 6. If immigration, press 7. If some other issue is most important, press 8.
War in Iraq ............ 29% Education .............. 7% Economy and jobs. 48% Taxes .................... 2% 2% Moral and family values.................... Health care............ 8% Immigration ........... 1% Other ..................... 2%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2. Women .................. .55% Men..................... .45%
Q4 If you are white, press 1, if African-American, press 2. If other, press 3. White ..................... .79% African American .......... .16% Other...................... . 5%
Q5 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65, press 3. If older than 65, press 4. 18-29...................... .16% 30-45...................... .25% 46-65...................... .35% Older than 65 ............. .24%
Public Policy Polling is riding a new wave of polling technology called Interactive Voice Response or IVR. Just as polling changed from mail-in surveys and door-to-door interviewers to live telephone interviewers, the industry is now evolving into automated telephone surveys (IVR) and internet polling.
IVR technology drastically reduces the expense of polling and allows us to complete surveys faster, usually in one evening. Pollsters Survey USA and Rasmussen Reports have lead the charge nationally for this budding segment of the polling industry. Public Policy Polling has been the leader in North Carolina since its beginning in 2001.
In addition to cost and time advantages, IVR technology has helped to poll more accurately. We can reduce interviewer bias to zero by eliminating the live human interviewer. Every poll respondent hears the exact same questions read the exact same way. We also utilize the voter registration database for most of our surveys. Calling only registered or likely voters will get a much more accurate sample of the target populations for most political and campaign based polling.
Nader: 5% nationally if Obama is the nominee; 6% if Clinton is the nominee.
It's hard to see how Democrats win if Nader continues to poll this well. The Democrats have turned their backs on progressives; it just might cost them the election.
There's no way in hell there has been a 28-point swing in this race in two weeks. During the same rough time period, Rasmussen and SurveyUSA both reported a 7-point improvement for Obama. That much is reasonable given the news cycle. 28? Patently ridiculous.
SUSA is still the gold standard this cycle, and their latest 53-41 results feel right. But remember, Clinton started with a 19-point lead. And right now, at this moment in time, we're in a mini-Obama surge and Clinton dip. His numbers are likely artificially inflated compared to hers.
If the election were held today, I'd give Clinton a 15-point victory. An improvement no doubt over Obama's position from the worst of the Rev. Wright mess, but still nowhere near close enough to make this a real contest. Obama still has a great deal of work ahead of him in the Keystone State.
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Robert Sargent (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 24 diaries, 302 comments)
on Wednesday, April 2, 2008 at 7:15:26 PM
I'd Have to See This "New" Technology from the Trenches
Without an adult human, or an accurate item set, discriminating between children and adults, likely voters versus unlikely voters, I'm inclined to agree with Kos on this one.
The standard error seems wildly optimistic given these items.
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Richard Volaar (20 articles, 0 quicklinks, 61 diaries, 227 comments)
on Wednesday, April 2, 2008 at 8:04:44 PM
I'd Have to See This "New" Technology from the Trenches
Without an adult human, or an accurate item set, discriminating between children and adults, likely voters versus unlikely voters, I'm inclined to agree with Kos on this one.
The standard error seems wildly optimistic given these items.
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Richard Volaar (20 articles, 0 quicklinks, 61 diaries, 227 comments)
on Wednesday, April 2, 2008 at 8:04:53 PM
I frankly have a healthy distrust of any poll, even the ones that tell me what I'd love to hear. Does anyone not have an agenda? And I do mean anyone.
Polling is an art, not an exact sceince. The PPP poll got it right in WI, and another state, I think Texas. I am more interested in the people who refuse to answer pollsters, myself.
Does anyone know if PA has an open primary? I am more concerned about Republicans determining the rest of the primary results by voting in the Dem primaries.
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Char Stellamaris (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 35 comments)
on Wednesday, April 2, 2008 at 8:41:22 PM
The Pennsylvania primary is not an open primary, i.e. only registered Democrats can vote. However, thousands of people have switched parties and become Democrats in the past weeks.
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Kimbefly (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 2 comments)
on Wednesday, April 2, 2008 at 9:11:16 PM
I have done polls--my own state wide poll. I studied "the science" of doing polls...Sociology 225--Data and research Analysis. It IS a science and if done scientifically with questions with controlled NO bias, the poll is accurate with just say, a 3 point standard deviation at most. The questions appear and read UN biased to me.
If you haven't polled or done the study therein, then I guess you can claim how "fruitless" they are. Amazing how people sure think they are accurate in the consumer of products world but hestitate to believe them in the political world.
This poll is a good sign for Obama. Gotta wonder how many old ppl will get out and vote this year. They carry the weight in voter turnout. They tend to be stuck! on Clintonism...just because they don't know better.
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shirley reese (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 278 comments)
on Wednesday, April 2, 2008 at 9:18:47 PM
No such thing as science in the "soft" social sciences; people cannot be nailed down and dissected mathematically or chemically like a rock.
We tend to be too diverse and fluid for "scientific" applications, though the mind-stealers are certainly trying to herd the whole race into categories for easier manipulation. These pollsters, are people first and robots second. They have their own agendas and biases; maybe most simply want a job.
Though Obama strikes me as a man with a predispositon to herd instinct, his Barack-friendly polsters are going to have to come up with some clever sell to fool some of us some of the time.
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Marilyn Frith (6 articles, 0 quicklinks, 4 diaries, 191 comments)
on Thursday, April 3, 2008 at 1:46:58 PM
The original press release is at 
