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October 18, 2008 at 08:34:12
Promoted to Headline (H2) on 10/18/08: by Ray McGovern Page 1 of 2 page(s) |
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We are spared, this go-round, from "mushroom clouds." But racing to a bomb? Never mind that the 16 agencies of the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a formal National Intelligence Estimate last November that work on the nuclear weapons-related part of Iran’s nuclear program was halted in mid-2003. And never mind that Thomas Fingar, National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell’s deputy for national estimates, reiterated that judgment as recently as Sept. 4. Never mind that the Post’s own Walter Pincus reported on Sept. 10 that Fingar added that Iran has not restarted its nuclear weapons work. Hey, the editorial fellows know best. The good news is that the bottom line of the Sept. 23 editorial marks one of those rare occasions when the Post’s opinion editors have managed to reach a correct conclusion on the Middle East. It is true that the likelihood of an Israeli or U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has receded in recent months. The more interesting questions are (1) why? And (2) under what circumstances might such an attack become likely again? The Post attributes the stepping back by Israel and the U.S. to "the financial crisis and the worsening violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan." These are two contributing factors but, in my judgment, not the most important ones. Not surprisingly, the Post and other charter members of the Fawning Corporate Media (FCM) omit or play down factors they would prefer not to address. Russia and Deterrence
More important than the bear market is the Russian Bear that, after a 17-year hibernation, has awakened with loud growls commensurate with Russia’s growing strength and assertiveness. The catalyst was the fiasco in Georgia, in which the Russians saw the hands of the neo-cons in Washington and their Doppelganger of the extreme right in Israel.
You would hardly know it from FCM coverage, but the fiasco began when Georgian President Mikhail Sakashvili ordered his American- and Israeli-trained Georgian armed forces to launch an attack on the city of Tskhinvali, capital of South Ossetia, on the night of August 6-7, killing not only many civilians but a number of Russian observers as well.
It may be true that our State Department officials had counseled Shakashvili against baiting the Russian Bear, but it is abundantly clear to anyone paying attention to such things, that State is regularly undercut/overruled by White House functionaries like arch-neo-con Elliott F. Abrams (F. for Fiasco). His encomia include those earned for his key role in other major fiascos like the one that brought about the unconscionable situation today in Gaza. (Would that the president’s father had let Abrams sit in jail, rather than pardoning him after he was convicted for perjuring himself in testimony to Congress on the Iran-Contra fiasco.)
In any event, it is almost certainly true that Russian Premier Vladimir Putin saw folks like Abrams, Vice President Dick Cheney, and their Israeli counterparts as being behind the attack on South Ossetia. For centuries the Russians have been concerned—call it paranoid—over threats coming from their soft southern underbelly, and their reaction could have come as no surprise to anyone familiar with Russian history—or, by analogy, those familiar with American history and the Monroe Doctrine, for example.
Even neo-con Randy Scheunemann, foreign policy adviser to Sen. John McCain and former lobbyist for Georgia’s Sakashvili, would have known that. And this lends credence to speculation that that is precisely why Scheunemann is said to have egged on the Georgian president. Russia’s reaction was totally predictable, and enabled McCain to "stand up to Russia" with very strong rhetoric and not-so-subtle suggestions that his foreign policy experience provides an important advantage over his opponent in meeting the growing danger of a resurgent Russia.
Russia’s leaders are likely to have seen in Sakashvili’s provocation, in the attempt to get NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine, in the deployment of antimissile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic, and in hasty U.S. recognition of an independent Kosovo, indignities that Russia should no longer tolerate.
I can visualize Russian generals telling Putin:
Enough! Look at the weakened Americans. They have destroyed what’s left of their Army and Marine Corps, spreading them out and demoralizing them in two unwinnable wars. We know how bad it is with just one unwinnable war. It has not been that long since Afghanistan. But, Vladimir Vladimirovich, before we indulge ourselves with Schadenfreude, consider what such actions betoken—total recklessness of a kind we have seen only rarely in Washington.
Who can assure us that "the crazies"—the Cheney-Abrams-Bush cabal—will not encourage the Israelis to precipitate the kind of armed provocation vis-à-vis Iran that would "justify" America’s springing to the defense of its "ally" to bomb and missile-attack Iran. You are aware of the importance of the Israel lobby, and how American politicians vie with one another to prove themselves the most passionately in love with Israel.Periodic attempts by Congress to require President Bush to seek congressional approval before ordering a strike on Iran have failed miserably. So his hands are free for another "pre-emptive war" before he leaves office. After all, Bush has publicly promised the Israelis he will deal with the "Iranian threat" before then. Besides, our political analysts suggest that Bush and Cheney might think that wider war would help the Republicans in the November election
No big bear likes to have a nose tweaked. But the Russian reaction to Georgia was not merely one of pique. It became a well-planned strategic move to disabuse Israel and the United States of the notion that Russia would sit still for an attack on Iran, a very important country in Russia’s general neighborhood. After Georgia, the Russians were bent on sweeping such plans "off the table," so to speak, and seem to have succeeded.
The signs of new Russian assertiveness are in the public domain, although the FCM has not given them much prominence. What is more telling is the effect on Israel and the United States. Since early August there has been a sharp decline in the formulaic rhetoric against Iran’s "path toward nuclear weapons," especially among U.S. policy makers and in American media following the conflict in Georgia and the expiration of the latest "ultimatum" served on Iran to stop its nuclear program.
The change in official Israeli statements was the most pronounced. After a consistent hawkish stance toward Iran, Israel’s president, Shimon Peres told London’s Sunday Times in early September:
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the table
Ray, I never believed that an attack was really on the table in the first place especially as the threats seemed to go on and on for years just for its own sake. Regardless, glad to see no war and also glad to see the US and Israel brought down to a more humble style of dialogue. the prospects for peace in the region are better than in a long time especially if we too manage to get rid of ahmadinejad in next year's elections. Its time for levelheadedness and respect in international relations. peace to all by Niloufar Parsi (4 articles, 0 quicklinks, 9 diaries, 83 comments) on Saturday, Oct 18, 2008 at 9:49:40 AM  (0+)
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And it doesn't hurt when US newspapers put out endorsements
Like most of us, clicking away at OEN, it seems the rest of the world is rather waiting to see how Neo-Cons will feel on November 5. by Margaret Bassett (45 articles, 2909 quicklinks, 42 diaries, 1851 comments [99 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Saturday, Oct 18, 2008 at 1:21:25 PM (0+)
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Iran
For any normal country, starting another war while two are still being fought would definitely consign the government and the party running the government to the political graveyard. But of course the US is not normal. To its citizens it is exceptional and they are exceptional, exceptionally prideful that is and nothing comes before a great fall than great pride. Enjoy the tumble. by Archie (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1750 comments [111 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Saturday, Oct 18, 2008 at 7:12:39 PM (0+)
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Afghanistan Is Now Our Primary Concern
We watched Russia and supplied the Stingers that eventually caused the Soviet Union pull-out and subsequently implode from the enormous financial loss they suffered in Afghanistan. The Russians are aware that it was us that contributed to their defeat, and as the Bear rises back up from the ashes, they have decided enough is enough. In our case, Afghanistan could have been a huge success - but those who “decided” to let the Afghan Army handle Tora Bora and allowed Bin Laden and his Taliban counterparts to escape to Northern Pakistan. The Bush administration was conned by Mushareff, whose policies were playing one against the other to the point that he lost the stability of his own nation. If George Bush would have honored his promise to the American people and the global community, known "terrorists" would not have been allowed safe harbor in any nation on earth. For Pakistan and a misguided Pakistani internal policy, they allowed the Taliban and Al Qaeda to gain enough strength whereas now, Pakistan itself is in danger of succumbing to the cancerous spread of radical Islam and Al Qaeda; it was preventable, out intelligence told us that any nation that gives Radical Islam safe harbor eventually has to fight for their own sovereignty as the dogma of hate and terror spread through a nation. It was preventable and instead of finishing-off what could have been a resounding American victory - Bush and Cheney decided starting their war for profit was more important than dealing Al Qaeda and the Taliban what many would call a death blow. They would have re-emerged, but it would have taken longer, and with Pakistan's "real" support, they might have been crushed in that area for good. What will be our response be when Pakistan falls into the hands of Al Qaeda and the Taliban? They have already deeply infiltrated the military, courts, and the Pakistani legislature itself and they gain in strength on a daily basis. Whether Israel attacks Iran itself remains to be seen. They have purchased advanced armaments from the United States and I expect the "bunker buster bombs" will be arriving soon. There are rumors that Bush stated he would not sanction such an attack, a position that has to be aggravating to Cheney. The two have not been in agreement lately on several issues; I believe that corporate interests are making it clear to the White House that if they start another war, the probabilities of many of them surviving may be in question. In the end, it's all about the money - it always is. That brings us to our nation. If an Iran attack wasn't the precursor to a declaration of Martial Law, then such a declaration would have to be generated from within the United States. It could take the form of a complete economic meltdown, an internal "terrorist attack", or an angry public acting in unison if the GOP steals another Presidential Election. I believe it's likely that Russia is the reason our Presidency has changed their tune in regard Iran; I hope they also realize that the American people are watching, waiting, and their mood isn't good. We live in historical times, and this is one segment of history that I would have rather read about than experience - and it may be far from over. William Cormier by William Cormier (152 articles, 11 quicklinks, 21 diaries, 418 comments [9 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Saturday, Oct 18, 2008 at 8:49:09 PM (0+)
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When anyone asks me , "But why?"
I answer I don't have an answer for insanity. People are always looking for rational answers, which is rational, unfortunately that doesn't relate to the people in charge. Will "the crazies" attack Iran? Who knows? They're crazy. And they didn't get that handle by acting rationally, so if one were to bet on what they would do I'd bet because they are crazy that they'll attack. I'm going to try to think crazy for a minute. Attacking Iran would of course change the landscape and crash our economy and bring on the instability those in the New World Order group are looking to initiate. After all these crazies aren't looking to gain stability, their creed is order out of chaos, so it's chaos bound we are. I just don't trust these cretins - how does one trust insanity? by Mr M (8 articles, 0 quicklinks, 66 diaries, 2845 comments [654 recommended, 27 rejected]) on Sunday, Oct 19, 2008 at 9:08:17 AM (0+)
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We are safe with Obama
Iran is a small country ... listen to Obama, we don't need to worry, Even if they are buying supplies from Russia... they mean no harm... just like Iraq they are just misunderstoood .... We now live in a country that believes ther is no God... therefore evil does not exist the Democratic Party has everyhting in control just ask Nancy Pelosi... trash Bush..... he's only one man... just don't trash the democratic party.. One World Order we'll soon be out of harms way... by Don Bybee (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 116 comments [2 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Sunday, Oct 19, 2008 at 9:22:54 PM (0+)
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