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If I am right in surmising that there has been no reliable intelligence requiring change in the NIE's key judgments, publication (or, more likely) leaking of an honest Memorandum to Holders could again thwart the Israelis and those who are encouraging an attack on Iran.
There's also the risk to the hawks that a Memorandum that included "uncorroborated, contradicted, and non-existent" intelligence could become an object of ridicule before it provoked another Middle East conflict. Honest analysts pressured to manufacture such evidence might well decide to share their experience with honest journalists (as a few tried to do in 2002-2003 although the warnings were mostly drowned out by the exciting stampede to war). And, given the current dearth of honest journalists in the FCM, analysts might choose to share their chagrin with websites like Wikileaks to expose the latest charade.
As for the role of intelligence, we are likely to learn in the coming weeks whether the senior officials in charge of NIEs and Memoranda to Holders are in the mold of Tom Fingar or, conversely, of George Tenet and his top lieutenants -- hangers-on like John Brennan who is now President Barack Obama's right-hand man for intelligence, now working at the National Security Council.
Tenet and his merry men and women were able to persuade themselves that once the President decided to go to war, their job was to create "intelligence" to "justify" it, so the case made to the American people would be a "slam-dunk."
The next war hangs largely on whether U.S. intelligence analysts with integrity are allowed to ply their trade without fear or favor; or, failing that, whether they will decide to give priority to the supervening value of preventing another unnecessary war, as opposed to keeping a promise not to divulge classified information. Most of them are well aware that all too often such information is stamped "SECRET" simply to keep the truth from the American people.
A shorter version of this article first appeared on Consortiumnews.com.
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