War with Iran May Have Begun with Offensive in Iraq

US circumstantial elements:

* According to a New York Times report on March 28, 2008, Bush attended "three days of briefings with senior advisers and military commanders on the situation in Iraq and the options for reducing the number of American troops there beyond the withdrawals already announced." Given Bush's limited attention span, his attending three days of briefings to discuss planned withdrawals is unbelievable, with plans to attack Iran the far more likely three day topic.

* As soon as the Iraqi operations began in Basra, Bush immediately and personally praised the Iraqi government for its actions, appearing to be part of planned propaganda offensive;

* In the same report, Bush described the operation in Basra as an "offensive" that "builds on the security gains of the surge";

* Finally, the same New York Times report says, "Mr. Bush also accused Iran of arming, training and financing the militias fighting against the Iraqi forces";

* Admiral Fallon's removal takes effect March 31, 2008;

* US Treasury Department undermines Iranian international banking operations.

What are the likely next steps toward an attack on Iran?

* Continuing the current tactical thrust of preemptive strikes against those likely to respond in an attack on Iran, major US military operations on the Iraq-Iran and Iraq-Syria border areas are very likely;

* Various Iranian assets within Iraq will likely be targeted by US and Iraqi government operations;

* Israel may attack Hamas in Gaza as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria;

* The likelihood of a US-Iran naval incident continues.

Overall, US and Iraqi government forces are expected to continue a general offensive against the Mahdi Army in violation of the six month cease-fire, while claiming Iran is responsible for attacks on US forces. Finally, if a bit of tea reading can be forgiven, Bush's confidence and high spirits this week appear to be of the "I have decided" sort. The relief seen just prior to the Iraq invasion: Where he decided to go to war, so the hard part was over, for him, as he sleep like a baby, having made what was arguably the worst strategic blunder in American history.

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Note to Reader: Given our conclusion that an attack on Iran is likely before the end of May, it seems appropriate to release near-term assessments of events as they develop, rather than waiting for additional data and time for a more mature appreciation of the situation.

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