Mixed Signals
After months of increasing expectations that the Bush administration was preparing to attack Iran, a series of events in the last few weeks indicated a possible shift in strategy. The central question about these events, listed below, is whether they represent a genuine shift away from intended war making, or are just repositioning designed to enhance conditions for the long-planned attack on Iran?
Among those events in question:
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Resolution of the Lebanon's latest internal conflict, initially trigged by a failed effort to seize Hezbollah's communications infrastructure, apparently inspired and backed by the Bush administration, after which Lebanon's government and Hezbollah reached an accommodation, leaving those facilities intact and strengthening Hezbollah's already dominant military and political position;
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Israel and Syria initiated and acknowledged ongoing negotiations, despite the objections by the Bush administration;
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Iraqi factions agreed to halt the U.S.-back offensive against Sadr City in Baghdad, allowing Iraqi troops, but not U.S. troops, to patrol the district;
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Israel and Hamas, using Egypt as a go-between, negotiated the extension of a developing de facto cease-fire in Gaza;
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Preparations by the Bush administration to give up power at the end of their legal term of office, indicating an acceptance of such a termination;
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Iraq's government indicating, in the face of White House pressure, that it wants a U.S. withdrawal time table;
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U.S. participation in "direct talks" with Iran and possible establishment of a U.S. interest section in Tehran.
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U.S. reportedly rejected Israeli weapons requests and warned Israel against attacking Iran.
Prediction Error
While it is clear that speculation about the future is particularly prone to error, we think it important to acknowledge such misjudgments, as we do now by noting our April 2008 conclusion about a likely US attack on Iran by the end of June:
"Since we continue to believe the attack will likely come before the end of May, or, at the latest June, we think it is likely the attack will come between May 11, 2008 and June 30, 2008. If not, then with near certainty before the US elections in November. Should the attack not come before Bush leaves office, the chances of a major attack on Iran would be greatly diminished, no matter which of the three remaining major candidates takes office in his place, even if potential war provoking incidents between the US and Iran were to occur. And this is why the Israel Lobby is pressing Bush to act before it is 'too late'." ~ April 30, 2008.
Covert Acts of War
Nevertheless, acts of war by the U.S. against Iran are occurring. The Bush administration, with Congressional approval, has undertaken covert acts of war against Iran. These ongoing actions, funded by Congressional appropriations for operations within Iran meant to destabilize Iran enough to provoke either regime change or policy modification, include bombings and assassinations. While one could argue that the U.S.- Iran war on a covert level has already begun, these actions, while provocative, have not created within the present government in Tehran a provocation of sufficient magnitude to warrant a state of war, which would presumably result in Iranian attacks on US naval and ground forces in the region, if not wider attacks elsewhere. Attacks the Bush administration appears to be inviting, perhaps with the expectation that the resulting losses and counter-attacks would generate public support for the administration and the Republican presidential candidate.
