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Why Hillary Clinton Will Win

By       Message Kevin Geary     Permalink
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I know there are a lot of people who feel uncomfortable with the thought of Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, and the reasons are myriad. They feel she's arrogant, they feel she's "just more of the same", they feel she'll be beaten by the Republican smear machine who they think will go into overdrive once she becomes the nominee, and then finally there are those that hope for the kind of change they think Barak Obama will bring (and certainly, he's the only Democratic candidate who could easily win the support of moderate Republicans, may of whom think that he's someone they could vote for, unlike Hillary.)

But, even though I myself really like Obama, and in many respects I see him as a real change candidate, perhaps even more so than a possible woman president, and I can certainly see the merits of many of the other Democratic candidates, like Joe Biden, whose command and knowledge of Foreign policy is certainly formidable, and Bill Richardson, who in any other election season would certainly be a front-runner, as the highly successful governor of New Mexico, the fact is that every time one sees Hillary Clinton, either in the debates, or speaking on CSpan at a Q&A session, she comes across as not only having a total command of the facts, but also as the most formidable and "presidential" of all the candidates.

This command of the facts, and ability to speak without a moment's hesitation, seems to me to be her strongest quality and adds to the perception of her "presidential" qualities. One underestimates her at one's peril. And my liking for Obama has been tempered by his really rather lack-luster performance in the debates, and his less than stellar performance in Q&As, whenever I have seen him. He's attractive as a personality without question, and I know several Republicans who would vote for him if he were the candidate in the election, yet I cannot see him winning the nomination.

It's a strange phenomenon, although not unknown in politics, that a very popular candidate universally, will fail to get the votes necessary to win. Case in point; in the recent French elections, the UDF candidate, was less popular in the first round, but if he had beaten the socialist, Ségolène Royal, in the first round, he would have handily defeated Sarkozy in the run-off! So, often one finds, as with Obama, a strange phenomenon of people supporting one candidate whom they really like, but voting for the candidate they really think will be the winner, even though the candidate they like might well have more universal appeal in the main election. I believe we have the same phenomenon in operation here.

"Perception is a crazy mistress", as someone once said, but the fact is that in our media and television age, perception is everything, and just like the debate between Kennedy and Nixon, those who heard the debate on the radio felt Nixon won, but those that watched on TV thought that Kennedy won. On TV, Hillary looks like a natural leader amongst men, and that perception will propel her to a victory, and more than likely, to the presidency.

Omaba, and all the other candidates, may well have George W. Bush to blame for their seeming failure to gain momentum in this race. George W. has caused so may people (even long-standing Republicans) to literally cringe at his lack of communication skills and his malapropisms, which have become the "meat and potatoes" of late night TV, from the Daily Show, to Letterman and Leno, that the tolerance for hesitation, or even thoughtfulness and reflectiveness in response to questions, has completely disappeared, right across the board. As a result, Hillary's extraordinary ability to be both informed and articulate, is her trump card in this race. Just like her husband, Bill, won against George Bush 41, because of the perception that he seemed more articulate and informed, but also more in touch with "regular people" than George 41, Hillary is now winning because of the perception that none of us wants to elect a "dumbo" or inarticulate "moron" ever again, even when none of the Democratic candidates could be thought of in that way in the least, but "Perception is a crazy mistress!". Blame George W. Bush, but that's the way it is. (Hillary should be sending him flowers!)

 

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Kevin Geary is an artist and writer. He currently resides in Sedona, AZ.

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