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OpEdNews Op Eds    H2'ed 6/14/09

The Islamic Republic of Iran Might Be Dead

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reprinted from by Setrak


Even if there are clerics supporting Mousavi and calling this election a sham, it seems like it may be too late for the Islamic Republican of Iran.  People are not just demonstration for Mousavi or any of the other two opposition candidates.  They are not demonstrating against Ahmadinjead.  They are demonstrating against the entire establishment.

Nico Pitney and the staff of the Huffington Post, Andrew Sullivan and friends of the Atlantic, and the Daily Kos community especially deserves credit for gathering all of the tweets, e-mails, blogs, phone calls, and videos that give us a startling view of what's taking place in Iran.  The more I read, the more I think that the establishment there is history.  The more I'm also proud to be a part of the netroots.

Even if the opposition manages to have the election voided and redone, does anyone seriously think that the Supreme Leader will have any credibility anymore?  According to reports coming into and through the netroots, the violence is dramatically increasing.  People are fighting the security forces and might even be arming themselves in some places.   The protests are clearly not limited to Tehran.  The candidates who opposed Ahmadinejad have basically thrown all of their weight against him.  Some reports have come in suggesting that some of the security forces are Arabs who might be affiliated with Hezbollah, since they might be more willing to beat up Persians(rather than fellow Persians beating up on one another).

Ben Smith and Harry Siegel of Politico have said that "The "Obama effect" hits a wall in Iran."   They're absolutely right.  The desire for a better-future and a friendlier-world have hit the wall that is the establishment in Iran.  These are the people stuck in the late 70's and the 80's, the people who are on a completely different wave-length than the youth of Iran(who far outnumber the previous generation).  The question becomes; how long it might be before these people realize that they are reliving the revolution, only this time it is they who are the illegitimate regime?

Things are so bad for "President-Elect" Ahmadinejad and "Supreme Leader" Khamanei right now that there would be few tears shed for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.  That's not a suggestion that the U.S. should get near Iran with a ten-foot poll, only an observation that the establishment wouldn't gain much sympathy if not a whole lot of blame and further destabilization of their illegitimate(and it is) regime.

The "Obama-effect", whether it's real or not, may have hit a wall in Iran.  However, that wall might be soon torn down by the people of Iran.

LaFeminista was right to observe that we really can't be certain about Mir Hossein Mousavi's sincerity, given his service in the 1980's as Prime-Minister(while Khamanei, then President, was a rival).   However, as Moe Lane of RedState(who I refuse to link to, and I only bring up to show a completely different perspective finding the same conclusion) put it, "I still don’t trust this guy.  But I guess that really isn’t an option anymore."  He's right, it isn't an option.

The Islamic Republican of Iran, which may also be rightfully referred to as the Islamic Regime of Iran(a government of thuggish-fundamtentalists, by thuggish-fundamtentalists, and for thuggish-fundamtentalists), is on a collision course with its demise.  Or it might be the "Obama-effect" colliding with the wall that is this thuggish establishment.  Speaking of which, Iran's "Michelle Obama"(Mousavi's wife) has called for peaceful protests on Monday.  Stay tuned, and hope(or pray if it suits you) for the best.
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