The landscape of Syria is shifting once more, as a series of recent events signal potential cracks in President Bashar al-Assad's enduring grip on power.
On Saturday, rebels, including many with the U.S.-designated Islamic terrorist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), took control of the major city of Aleppo in northern Syria.
The rebels seized Aleppo's airport and started pushing into towns and villages in the countryside around the city on Sunday after leaving piles of dead government soldiers in the streets. Observers said the rebel forces were often met with little to no resistance by regime forces, but by Monday the pace of the surprise offensive appeared to have slowed, with Assad and his Russian backers ramping-up their response.
On Monday, at least 25 people were killed in northwestern Syria in the rebel-held city of Idlib in air strikes carried out by the Syrian government and Russia.
Syria's civil war began in 2011 after civilians led pro-democracy protests against Assad, and his government responded by opening fire on its own people. The ensuing war is thought to have killed around 500,000 people but, for the last several years, it had simmered as a stalemate. Government forces have controlled the west and south of the country, American-backed rebels have dominated the northeast, and Islamist rebel factions -- including the ones now in control of Aleppo -- have held most of the northwest.
"We are coming Damascus," the rebels chanted Sunday, threatening to push on next toward Syria's national capital and the Assad government's stronghold.
The Islamist groups, particularly those aligned with hardline ideologies, have resurfaced in the northern and eastern territories, emboldened by diminishing international focus and the fragility of local power structures.
While their territorial conquests do not rival the vast expanses once held by ISIS, these groups have managed to assert influence in key rural regions, disrupting supply chains and governance. Prisoners, including several Kurdish women, have been taken, though their treatment and exact locations remain shrouded in mystery, amplifying fears of sectarian and retaliatory violence.
The motivations of these Islamist factions remain diverse yet unified by a singular goal: to dismantle Assad's regime and replace it with an Islamic state.
While some seek an emirate rooted in local governance, others envision a broader caliphate extending beyond Syria's borders. Their resurgence poses not only a direct military challenge to the regime but also complicates efforts by external actors like Russia and Iran to stabilize their footholds in the country.
President Assad's whereabouts and role are increasingly opaque, with reports suggesting a more insulated leader, reliant on a close cadre of advisors and military leaders. This isolation mirrors his narrowing support base, particularly as economic turmoil and corruption exacerbate public discontent in regime-held areas. Popular protests, once unheard of in core Assad strongholds, have gained traction, echoing grievances that led to the 2011 uprisings.
The implications of this shifting power dynamic extend well beyond Syria's borders. A destabilized Syria risks reigniting regional tensions, from Turkey's precarious dealings with Kurdish factions to Israel's concerns over Hezbollah's positioning near its borders. For Sunni-majority states in the Gulf, the prospect of Islamist rebels gaining momentum is a dual-edged sword, potentially weakening Assad while also threatening to embolden extremist cells closer to home.
As the Syrian conflict enters this precarious phase, questions linger about the durability of Assad's rule.
Could this mark the beginning of his end, or is it merely another phase in Syria's seemingly perpetual cycle of upheaval? What is certain is that the stakes are higher than ever, with the outcome set to reverberate across the Middle East for years to come.
