The massive flood that killed thousands in Libya earlier this month was blamed on the collapse of two dams and heavy rainfall. But there is a more sinister reason behind the tragedy: climate change.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group recently published a study in which they said the deluge of the magnitude seen in northeastern Libya - an event that occurred only once every 300-600 years - was more likely caused by the human contribution to global warming.
Researchers from Greece, the U.S., the Netherlands, Germany, and the UK collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the heavy rainfall that led to the flooding.
They found that the rains were both more likely and heavier because of human-caused global warming, with up to 50 percent more rain during the period.
Storm Daniel, the hurricane that swept across large parts of the Mediterranean in early September, as well as conflict and poor dam maintenance, may have helped turn extreme weather into a humanitarian disaster, but global warming is the main cause - and humans are to blame.
According to the study, on Sep. 3, "torrential rain fell within a few hours in Spain, followed by very heavy rain and floods caused by the low-pressure system 'Daniel' in Greece and Bulgaria between the 4th and the 7th of September, and devastating floods in Libya after very extreme rainfall during the 10th."
The intense flooding submerged numerous communities. Thousands were displaced, with the death toll reaching four in Bulgaria, six in Spain, seven in Turkey, and 17 in Greece. The Libyan city of Derna alone reported 12,000 casualties.
In the broader region, encompassing Greece and portions of Bulgaria and Turkey, the WWA study suggests that human-driven climate change might have increased the chances of witnessing such extreme events by up to 10-fold and intensified their severity by up to 40%. As for the devastating flood in Libya, with the backdrop of a climate that's 1.2 degreesC cooler, such an extreme incident has now become up to 50 times more probable, with intensities surging by up to 50%.
The study emphasizes that these figures come with a significant margin of error, spanning a range that includes the potential for no observable change. However, the scientists said there are multiple indicators that reinforce their belief that climate change did indeed amplify the likelihood of these extreme weather events.
Libya's ongoing conflict and political instability exacerbated the flood's aftermath, according to WWA. This led to neglect and the gradual degradation of the dam structures, which raised the risk levels significantly and resulted in the subsequent tragedy. Libya's internal conflict also hampers the country's ability to strategize and cooperate on various climate-related challenges, from water shortages to extreme climatic conditions like heatwaves and flooding.
This disaster also points to the need to design and maintain infrastructure not just for the climate of the present, but also the future. In Libya, this means considering the long-term decline in average rainfall, and at the same time, the increase in extreme rainfall like we just witnessed. Climate change will only make matters worse in the future.
The WWA scientists are not alone in their thinking.
A new study by JW Surety Bonds, an insurance brokerage and consulting firm, used artificial intelligence to project climate change effects on major U.S. cities by 2123. It found that homes in cities like New York City, Oakland, California, Miami and Cape Coral, Florida would be underwater in 100 years.
According to Climate.gov, the global average sea level has risen 8-9 inches (21-24 centimeters) since 1880. "In 2021, global sea level set a new record high 97 mm (3.8 inches) above 1993 levels. The rate of global sea level rise is accelerating: it has more than doubled from 0.06 inches (1.4 millimeters) per year throughout most of the twentieth century to 0.14 inches (3.6 millimeters) per year from 2006-2015."
The climate agency adds that with continued high greenhouse gas emissions and rapid ice sheet collapse in the Arctic, "models project that average sea level rise for the contiguous United States could be 2.2 meters (7.2 feet) by 2100 and 3.9 meters (13 feet) by 2150.
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