Bernie Sanders has won primaries and caucuses in 20 states. Hillary Clinton has won in 23 (not counting US protectorates, etc.). She, in fact, leads Senator Sanders by only 8% in pledged delegates. Since superdelegates are not counted right up until the roll call vote at the Democratic convention, until that time, the contest between Clinton and Sanders can only be judged by pledged delegates. And judging from the basic numbers, the difference between the two candidates is bordering on statistically insignificant.
Yet, to hear the punditry, it should be a given that whomever ends up with the most delegates at convention time should be regarded as the winner. But the fact of the matter is that Hillary Clinton will, at best, come to the convention quite short of the 2382 pledged delegates necessary to earn the nomination, and Bernie Sanders within only a few percentage points of her. This is a fact, a fact strictly in accord with the democratic party's own rules governing the selection of their nominee. The party has itself decided that it does not, and will not, grant any candidate the right to be its nominee without achieving that magic number of 2382.
There is no "winner take all" when it comes to leading in pledged delegates at Democratic convention time. And Bernie Sanders is no longer a "marginal" candidate. His claim to the nomination, when viewed objectively, is really not significantly different from Hillary Clinton's.
The only real difference at this point is that of Mrs. Clinton being the candidate of choice by the Democratic Party establishment. There is no popular cry for her to be so anointed. She is hardly "the people's choice." Quite the contrary: she is in fact a very unpopular candidate. We need not go over the polling numbers once again to document this point, or the fact that Ms. Clinton is now about even with Trump nationally, while Sanders is beating him by as much as 15 points.
The drumbeat to a "Clinton Coronation" is yet another illusion manufactured by the popular media. If Sanders were in the delegate lead now, would there still be this perception of "inevitability"? Or would the establishment be running to Joe Biden, or figuring out some way to invalidate Senator Sanders' "democratic right" to be the nominee?
The fact of the matter is, technically, the contest for the Democratic nomination isn't even a "horse race" right now.
It's virtually a dead heat.
(Article changed on May 28, 2016 at 10:54)
(Article changed on May 28, 2016 at 11:05)
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