We think we know this will work itself out, but in fact it’s hard to see the solution. The Democrats, after letting him swing in the wind, will offer him a face-saving way of climbing down. An increase in the funding for border security, with a change of wording to allow construction of a segment of something Trump could call a Wall. The kicker is that Trump is a prisoner of his base and won't take the deal.
Ultimately he will have to take it, because he owns the shutdown. Most people will hold him responsible if Yosemite is closed. For his most hard-core base, that will just confirm that they were wrong to think him better than all his predecessors. In their eyes he will become just one more politician who promises everything and does nothing. The foundation of his base will melt away. He made this particular swamp; he’ll drown in it.