A User's Guide To FiveThirtyEight's 2016 General Election Forecast: by Nate Silver

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Susan Lee Schwartz

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The newest polling analysis from celebrity statistics whiz Nate Silver shows Donald Trump in a tight race against Hillary Clinton as the 2016 race grows ever closer.
With recent shake-ups in the electoral map, current projections from FiveThirtyEight give Clinton a 57 percent probability of victory, while Trump’s chances are pegged at 43 percent -- a 10-point swing from earlier this month. This fascinating piece by Silver shows how the differences between polls, the "themes & findings" and the 'major steps' taken to calculate the weight of the polls, to choose the version. Worth reading.

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At fivethirtyeight.com

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I began teaching in 1963,; Ba and BS in Education -Brooklyn College. I have the equivalent of 2 additional Master's, mainly in Literacy Studies and Graphic Design. I was the only seventh grade teacher of English from 1990 -1999 at East Side (more...)