So CNN released a poll that matched up our top three with the GOP's top four (sans Thompson), and the numbers could not be more stark. John Edwards DESTROYS all the GOP candidates by the widest margins of our top three. So here, I do what I've done before in making pretty graphs to look at the numbers below the fold.
Again, for each GOP candidate, in the margin column I've bolded the race that would give us the best margin of victory.
|Clinton 51%||Giuliani 45%||Win by 6%|
|Obama 52%||Giuliani 45%||Win by 7%|
|Edwards 53%||Giuliani 44%||Win by 9%|
|Clinton 54%||Romney 43%||Win by 11%|
|Obama 54%||Romney 41%||Win by 13%|
|Edwards 59%||Romney 37%||Win by 22%|
|Clinton 48%||McCain 50%||Lose by 2%|
|Obama 48%||McCain 48%||Tie|
|Edwards 52%||McCain 44%||Win by 8%|
|Clinton 54%||Huckabee 44%||Win by 10%|
|Obama 55%||Huckabee 40%||Win by 15%|
|Edwards 60%||Huckabee 35%||Win by 25%|
Notice a pattern? :-)
So, what does that translate to in graphical form? Visually, it becomes quite obvious.
And here's the column version for y'all to copy onto Blogger or Blogspot and other sites that have thinner margins.
Unfortunately, the CNN poll didn't provide demographic breakdowns like SurveyUSA always provides, so I can't do additional armchair analysis of what percent of Republicans cross over to vote for our candidates, or Democrats that choose to vote GOP. But I think here, the numbers speak for themselves.
The Edwards-Huckabee numbers are especially surprising, given that many of us were worried about Huckabee's economic populist stances taking away from Edwards. But if I may armchair pundit, perhaps we're seeing the reverse of the situation where you have a Republican versus a Democrat running as Republican-lite, and the voters choose the real thing. Here, you have a real economic populist, against a guy who talks a good game, but his Fair Tax bullshit sort of throws that out the window. Looks like voters go for the real economic populist.
It should be noted that some of these matchups differ wildly in other polls. For example, Rasmussen has Hillary doing better against Rudy than Edwards does. And that poll shows Edwards leading Huckabee by only a 44%-40% margin, quite a bit different from CNN's 25-point blowout.
So this CNN poll is just one poll. It may be a good or bad poll, we'll see. I'd like to see other non-partisan polling firms come out with these matchups to more accurately gauge what the national mood is.
And as mentioned before, the margin of victory is also crucial in that it needs to be greater than the GOP's margin for theft, chicanery, and voter suppression. Did you guys really think the GOP is gonna suddenly stop intimidating black voters or shredding registration forms? I don't think so. A 3-point lead can be stolen, and nobody bats an eyelash, because it was all within the margin of error. But if the polls show our candidate up by double digits, and they lose, most Americans WOULD bat an eyelash over those results.Again, these polls are just a snapshot in time, things can change, yadda, yadda, yadda. You know the spiel by now. :-)
Finally, take a look at the last question in the CNN poll, on faith in presidential politics. Is the religious pandering really what the American people want?
In general, would you prefer the presidential candidates to talk openly about their religious views or would you prefer them to keep their religious views as a private matter?
Talk openly about religious views 41%
Religious views a private matter 57%
No opinion 2%
Still, that 41% that DO want presidential candidates talking about it is way too high a number.