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What Ever You Do; Don't Do the Math:

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Message Mike Folkerth

I wish for one day that I could write nothing but good news in this space. But if I did, that would be a day that I couldn’t ask you to prepare for your future and every day counts.

 

As I watch all of my past predictions continue to unfold, I have to consider future predictions that could help us to see the best way to proceed.

 

I was accused of being Chicken Little when I predicted the housing collapse. Some two years ago I wrote the following. “Housing cannot and will not continue to increase at the current maniacal pace. It is just not a logical or mathematical possibility.”

 

“There will be a significant decline in home prices, and the effects will be far reaching. Interest rates will increase and prices will go down. Affordability for larger homes will be out of reach for the average person.”

 

“The perfect financial storm is brewing from years of inflation and socially induced illogical housing choices. The end result will take its toll on the wealth that you believe you have accumulated in personal housing.”

 

I went on to give advice to those nearing retirement, “If your plans for retirement include selling your present home in order to cash in on the equity, do it NOW. Even if you have a few years before you had planned to sell, inconvenience yourself a little now and clip the coupon.”

 

You don’t know how much I wish I had been wrong. But the point now is that I wasn’t.

 

The job reports on Friday revealed the loss of 80,000 jobs in March. I believe that April will also report a net loss of jobs as normal spring construction fails to occur.

 

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Mike Folkerth is the author of "The Biggest Lie Ever Believed" and is not your run-of-the-mill author of finance and economics. The former real estate broker, developer, private real estate fund manager, auctioneer, Alaskan bush pilot, (more...)
 
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