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What Al Qaeda's post mid-term elections propaganda really means

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I hope someone pays attention to this because if they don't, it's yet another disaster in the making. Watching the pundits today, I am stunned that not one of them seemed to know what to make of the situation. I know exactly what to make of it:

Al Qaeda knows it's ambitions in Iraq are absolutely dead if the United States leaves; As a Sunni terror group, it has no ideological common ground with the 70% Shitte majority in Iraq; it has never been tolerated by either the Sunni Bathists, or the Iranian Shittes. The propaganda issued today is explicitly designed with the hopes dragging the Democrats onto George Bush's side to remain in Iraq where we can be targeted, and where they can make use of our presence to operate within the greater divide of the common enemy; the United States.

If someone smart doesn't figure this out, and if the Democrats allow themselves to manipulated into a state of provocation to delay the exit from Iraq, or worse, to actually re-commit, Al Qaeda will truly have won.
These people are NOT in the business of giving the United States correct information.

If the United States can rapidly remove it's troops from Iraq, there will indeed be a blood bath, beginning with a slaughter of Sunnis who've terrorized the country since the fall of Saddam. This natural occurrence is something which needs to be anticipated and recognized for exactly what it is, or we risk Al Qaeda's having successfully once again manipulated George W. Bush into doing their bidding; Al Qaeda wanted the U.S. to topple Saddam, and every scholar who knows anything about the Middle East knows this. The United States has been fighting exactly the war Bin Laden wants us to fight, and so long as we are there, Al Qaeda is winning. Bin Laden's worst nightmare at this point, would be for the United States to withdraw, and to recommit itself to re-doubling efforts in Afghanistan where the enemy is actually identifiable, and where Al Qaeda's actually got a native capacity to rebuild and is doing so.

Iran is far less a problem than a solution were the current situation viewed intelligently by individuals who's ambitions were not a pretense to war; as a people they're far closer to the west and less fanatical. Realizing that Iraq is 70 percent Shitte and working with Iran, may strengthen Iran in the Middle East, but it would also spell the end of Bin Laden's movement outside of Afghanistan forever, and unarguably result in a victory for 70 percent of the Iraqi people. There does exist in this the real possibility of building what could be an important bridge between the people of Iran, and the majority in Iraq, and the United States. A defeat of the Sunni in Iraq would ultimately mean less bloodshed due to a rapid Shitte victory and conclusion of hostilities, and an eventual partitioning of the country from the effects of war.

Regardless, Al Qaeda's attempts to re-provoke the United States after the elections, are in fact desperate, and I hope we do not fall victim to the temptation to give Bin Laden what he wants yet again; more American blood and treasure, and cover to continue operations through our divisive presence. Iraq was a strategic mistake of epic proportions; probably the worst mistake in modern military history. The faster we get out of Iraq, the faster we stop making the mistake. Every day we're still there, is a gift to Al Qaeda.

 

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Jay Esbe is a writer with a background in cultural anthropology and comparative religion and lives in Seattle Washington.

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