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The Audacity of Numbers

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BarbinMD points out the MSM's tendency to present the race for the Democratic nomination as an incredibly close back and forth toss up.

a see-saw battle would imply that the lead keeps changing hands. It hasn't. Obama remains ahead in the pledged delegate count by approximately 100 delegates. Third, the only way Hillary will be able to overcome that deficit is if Obama falls victim to the old, "found in bed with a live boy or a dead woman." So please, get over your dream of an epic battle to the convention and report the facts.

The fact is, Obama has been ahead in pledged delegates since day one.

Data via Real Clear Politics.





















































































DateStatesObamaClintonTotal Pledged Delegates
1/3Iowa1615Obama 16, Clinton 15
1/8New Hampshire99Obama 25, Clinton 24
1/19Nevada1312Obama 38, Clinton 36
1/26South Carolina2512Obama 63, Clinton 48
2/5Super Tuesday847824Obama 910, Clinton 872
2/9WA, LA, NE, V.I.10655Obama 1016, Clinton 927
2/10Maine159Obama 1031, Clinton 936
2/12VA, MD, DC, D.A.11061Obama 1141, Clinton 997
2/19HA, WI5637Obama 1197, Clinton 1034
3/4TX, OH, VT, RI174184Obama 1371, Clinton 1218
3/8Wyoming75Obama 1378, Clinton 1223


As you can see, Obama's lead is solid and steady. This is not a see-saw or back and forth race by any measure. Here is what the pledged delegates look like plotted on a graph.

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Pledged

But what about Superdelegates?

Clinton, the early "inevitable" nominee, has had the lead all along. Right now though, it is as small as it has ever been.

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superdelegates

Obama is currently adding superdelegates at a rate of 3-1 over Clinton. By all indications, he'll soon take the superdelegate lead.

She's winning in "big states" though right?

Well, no. In the five biggest states it is 2-2. In the ten biggest states it is 3-3. In the 15 biggest states it is 5-5. And in the top 20 states in terms of population, Obama leads 8-7.

Fundraising (data via Wikipedia)











































Time PeriodObamaClintonObama TotalClinton Total
2007 Q2$32.5 Mil$27 Mil$32.5 Mil$27 Mil
2007 Q3$20 Mil$27 Mil$52.5 Mil$54 Mil
2007 Q4$20 Mil$20 Mil$72.5 Mil$74 Mil
Jan. 08$32 Mil$13.5 Mil$104.5 Mil$87.5 Mil
Feb. 08$55 Mil$35 Mil$159.5 Mil$122.5 Mil

Since voting began in January, Obama has outraised Clinton $87 Mil to $48.5 Mil.

The Popular Vote (data via RCP)











ObamaClintonSpread
13,024,961 - 49.4%12,421,358 - 47.1%Obama up by 603,603 - 2.3%

Before worrying about the Commander-in-Chief threshold, the inevitable underdog who wants it both ways may have to go back and work on the arithmetic threshold.

 

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Cross posted at The Seminal.

 

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The Audacity of Numbers