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NOTE: This article was originally published at TominPaine. It was written fEB 29,a week before the Michigan primary in which polls showed Clinton with an 18-25 point lead. As everyone knows by now Sanders won. And the news media was asking how the polls could have been so wrong. Since this article might have the answer I decided to republish it here keeping in mind, again, i was written a week before the Michigan primary but is still valid now and with future polls regarding Clinton and Sanders.
CNN unveiled a new national poll recently that showed Clinton beating Sanders 55-38. It might have raised some eyebrows as well as red flags since, outside of the south which is only a small section of the country, the poll does not reflect reality in terms of what has been happening in terms of actual votes in the primaries.
In states outside the south that Clinton has won, the results were practically a tie with Clinton winning by chin whiskers in Iowa and Massachusetts and only by 5 in the Nevada caucus. Contrary to Clintons virtual ties in those states, in states where Sanders wins, he wins by landslide numbers. Which one would think are facts that might make CNN and other pollsters consider that their polls are absurd. Because they are.
Maybe this will help.
Every poll including all the exit polls from all the voting venues with the exception of the South shows that Sanders destroys Clinton 84-9 with voters under 45. Sanders swamps Clinton among women 35 and under by 81-14. Its fair to say that among younger voters under 45 Clinton is a virtual non-entity. Where Clinton beats Sanders is with older voters, 65 and up. Including older women.
And that is what makes any poll comparing Sanders and Clinton worthless.Both national and local.
Because all polling is conducted by phone.Bujt not all phones. Only landline phones. Phone numbers are randomly chosen by a computer based on some formula that is supposed to be scientific and within a certain margin of error and those numbers are auto dialed by computer.
Federal law that prohibits the use of auto dialers making unsolicited calls to cell phones. Autodialers making unsolicited calls is the only way pollsters do polls. So all calls made by pollsters are to landlines. And in case CNN and other pollsters havent noticed most younger people which is the bulk of Sanders supporters, don't use land lines anymore. They only use smart phones. Most college students dont have landlines. Its older people, certainly people 65 and older who still are more likely to have land lines.And people 65 and older profile as Clinton voters. That is where her strength lies.
So most Sanders voters 45 and under who use only smart phones will never get called in a poll and so are never included.National polls and even local polls are always going to be skewed toward Clinton.
Given the enormous disparity between Sanders supporters and Clinton supporters based on age, and given that everyone called in a poll are land line users who profile as older and are more apt to be Clinton supporters, and given that most Sanders supporters use only cell or smart phones and so are never called, the 55-38 poll actually looks pretty good for Sanders. Because it means that 38% of people who profile as Clinton voters support Sanders. Compared to less than 10% of voters who profile as Sanders voters support Clinton.
The polls that show the breakdown of Sanders voters and Clinton voters by age and gender (and other factors) are exit polls from actual voting venues.
Another reason to dismiss CNN and other national polling is that base much of it on those who call themselves Democrats or are registered as Democrats. Many of Sanders younger supporters do not identify with being Democrats, but only identify with Sanders, not the Democratic party. And it is Sanders bringing them out not the Democratic party establishment which skews towards Clinton. So based on CNNs and other parameters of asking respondents if they are Democrats or registered Democrats first and dismissing them if they say no, that would eliminate a lot of Sanders supporters on those grounds too, even the minority who had landline phones and were called.
Another reason to dismiss CNN and other national polling is that base much of it on those who call themselves Democrats or are registered as Democrats. Many of Sanders younger supporters do not identify with being Democrats, but only identify with Sanders, not the Democratic party. And it is Sanders bringing them out not the Democratic party establishment which skews towards Clinton. So based on CNNs and other parameters of asking respondents if they are Democrats or registered Democrats first and dismissing them if they say no, that would eliminate a lot of Sanders supporters on those grounds too, even the minority who had landline phones and were called.
With the age, habit and lifestyle of the supporters of Clinton and Sanders so different as well as so relevant when it comes to national and even local polling, and with pollsters unable to call cell or smart phones which eliminates most Sanders voters from the polls the next question to be asked is: does the news media know this and simply dont care, knowing their polls regarding Sanders and Clinton are worthless, or are they really too stupid to have figured it out?
Either answer is equally possible. Another reason the mainstream media is both grossly incompetent and have values and standards so low as to make them almost worthless. And you dont need a poll to know that's true.
NOTE: This article was written days before the Michigan primary when polls showed Clinton with an 18-25 point lead. As everyone now knows, Sanders won.
