Today, I'm putting on my political campaign strategist hat and drawing on my over 22 years in this business running successful city, state, judicial and federal elections, starting as one of the first and few Black Caribbean-Americans to master this skill. I'm also going to draw on polling numbers and state history to arrive at what I think will be the outcome of this 2020 United States Presidential Elections. First, let me start by saying that the numbers show the Republican Party and President Donald Trump in very serious straits going into the last 7 days before election day. The aggregate of polls put Democrat Joe Biden at +7 percentage points ahead of the incumbent president. That's really bad news for the Republicans and more ominously, the unpopular president is dragging the GOP's "down ballot" candidates with him - something that portends a win or a tie in the US Senate.
So, let me drill down. Joe Biden has at least 7 paths to 270 while Donald Trump has only 1. What that means is that Trump CANNOT AFFORD to lose ONE of these states, especially Florida where's he's been spending a lot of time, as polls show he's hemorrhaging the key senior/retiree community vote, and that Democrats are making considerable inroads in sections of the Hispanic community. In 2016, Cubans in Florida and senior citizens propelled Trump to the White House. However, while the Cuban and conservative Hispanic vote has not left the Republican Party in droves, this bloc is not enough for Trump to win Florida this time. And thus the panic and concern going into the home stretch. The Democrats have done a great job of forcing Trump to defend Florida while staking a solid claim to Pennsylvania - a state that Trump MUSI WIN to get a second term.
Trump's path to victory (270 electoral college votes) includes: Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina for a total of 272 EC votes. ANY ONE PICK UP by the Democrats gets Joe Biden to 270 (Arizona), Pennsylvania (279), Florida (288), Texas (297). In a nutshell, all Democrats have to do is win JUST ONE of these states to send Trump packing from the White House. And speaking about the House of Representatives polling suggests that the Democrats will keep control of this part of government. As of now, my numbers show that Democrats have a 96% probability of retaining control of the House. The party currently holds 233 seats, giving it a comfortable cushion of 15 seats over the 218 needed.
Three states spell trouble for President Trump and the Republicans - Arizona now leans Democratic, Georgia is a "toss-up," and New Hampshire is now "likely Democratic." In recent weeks, Joe Biden's significant lead nationally has increased and widened. He now leads in the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight's polling averages are now close to 10 points apiece. More ominously for the Republicans and President Trump is a couple of respected national polls, CNN/SSRS and NBC News/Wall Street Journal, have Biden leading by as much as 16 and 14 points, respectively. Plus, state-level numbers have been generally bad for the president. For example, a Monmouth University poll has Biden's lead in the key Pennsylvania "must win" state for Trump late last week at around 10 points; the pollster's previous Keystone State survey had him up only a few points based on different turnout models. In other words, one of the better state-level polls for Trump in a key state was reversed in fresher polling. Ouch! That's not good news for the GOP!This kind of erosion threatens the GOP's statewide margin. I should note, while Georgia and Arizona are two different the former's diversity is driven by Black voters, while the latter's is driven by Hispanic voters one commonality is that BOTH states have a huge metro area where Biden appears to improve on Hillary Clinton's 2016 performance. In Georgia's case, that is metro Atlanta, with the suburban congressional districts GA-6 and GA-7 representing prime candidates to switch from Trump to Biden. When it comes to the U.S. Senate there are two toss-up seats - North Carolina and Iowa. Two states, Arizona and Maine, now lean Democratic, one Colorado is likely Democratic. So, how does Donald Trump lose this presidential election? Well, first by his abysmally poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic that he's trying desperately to distance himself from while painting a false, easy to check, rosy picture of the United States and its mounting death toll. Second, he's using a 2016 playbook when he was the challenger - today he's the incumbent with a dismal record of incompetence, "smoke-and-mirrors" politics, mistake after mistake, alienation of women and minority groups and the negative impact of performance, Reality TV politics. This is NOT 2016 and the old playbook has been found wanting. Third, by his crazy, intemperate behavior he's turned off many of the voters who "held their noses" and voted for him in 2016. They're now running away from him. Fourth, he's incapable of changing course and I sympathize with his campaign manager and strategists trying to handle "a candidate from hell" who insists on managing his campaign. A combination of all these factors have created a perfect political storm and Trump is set to lose this campaign. And it's not because people love Joe Biden (although some do) but voters now fed up with Trump and Company's many f**k ups, will cast their vote "AGAINST HIM" and for Joe Biden as the "lesser of two evils." To be sure, Biden is not the perfect political candidate - he's a senior citizen (like Trump), long past his prime and struggling in a generational time warp. But he's a decent, reasonable man and perhaps this is the stabilizing influence the United States needs now in the era of the Trump Hurricane tsunami of destruction. In the end Trump's politically self-inflicted Chinese " Lingchi"- death by a thousand cuts - will be his undoing and Republicans will pay a steep and heavy price for their embrace of a deeply flawed, arrogant, and petty man who has effectively destroyed the Republican Party relegating it to an alienated and disengaged minority party that embraces white supremacy, racism and the worst banal impulses of the American population. In my view, Trump's disrespect for the military, disrespect for women, and disrespect for scientists will cost him this election. Still, this race is not over until the proverbial fat lady sings. And, as all elections there are some variables that one cannot ignore. For instance, the Trump campaign has a very sophisticated online, Internet and social media campaign and the numbers there are unknown. Can this trigger a "silent Trump wave?" Sure, it can and Democrats must be aware of this. Then there is the issue of voter registration enrollment. To date the Republicans have had a very good voter registration program, but even with that election day voter turnout will be key and there is data that points to the Trump campaign having put a very good ground game in certain states and doing a robust door-to-door GOTV program.
THE KEY WOMEN VOTE
I am convinced that women over 50+ will make the major difference in this election. No, scratch that, they will decide the outcome of this election - period. And its not only the fact that they vote in higher percentages (and numbers) than men. President Trump has tried clumsily to attract more women to his column and his efforts have backfired - spectacularly. In fact, he's got big problems with women - in this election and after he leaves office. Lastly, this election promised to be one with the largest turnout in recent U.S. history far outpacing the 136 million votes cast in 2016. Already, at the time of writing this column, over 28 million votes have already been cast in the midst of a huge request for absentee and mail-in ballots.
Twenty-six women have accused Donald Trump of sexual improprieties. At least one, E. Jean Carroll, has accused him of rape. When Trump called her a liar, she sued him for defamation. Trump cannot stand the sight of a strong woman. He calls them "monsters" (Senator Kamala Harris), "nasty" (Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, the Dutchess of Sussex, Meghan Markle, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and others),"bimbos" (Megyn Kelly) among other sexist epithets. These cuts are causing the hemorrhaging of suburban women voters from the Republican column. Polls demonstrate that suburban women are shifting strongly to Biden. Suburban women will control this election.