Courtesy of @Jeffersonobama on Twitter who you should all follow, here are some interesting cross tabs of the new Pew poll.
Just for reference first,
In the 2010 election, there wasn't any more enthusiastic group then the Republicans and any more under enthusiastic group then the Democrats...yet in that year the Voter Turnout was 36% Dem 36% Republican and we got hammered worse then ever in my lifetime...
In 2008 Dems were very enthusiastic and Republicans not so much. Dem turnout was 39%, and republicans turnout was 31% and Obama won by 6%.
So I know Dems might not be quite as Enthusiastic as they were in 08, and I know the Republicans arent as enthusiastic as they were in 2010, yet Pew had a likely Voter model in their poll of Republicans +3%.
For perspective, in the history on modern polling there has never been an election where R's outnumbered D's. Not even 2010! So a +3 Republican likely voter model they are using is totally suspect to begin with because there are so many more Democrats in the country then Democrats.
I'm not saying its 2008, but I feel a lot more enthusiasm this year then I felt in 2010!!
Now I'm no conspiracy theorist, but thats just common sense.
In the pew poll
68% of LV polled were over 50 years old.
Only 30% of the poll was 18-49 year olds, and they were 57% of the vote in 2008
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