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A Final Comment
Whether or not future conflict is planned, current strategy is neutralizing Hezbollah by indictment for Hariri's killing, a transparent plan fooling no one in Lebanon. As of now, it's destabilized in limbo under caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, ahead of attempts to form a new government.
On January 21, Lebanon's Daily Star reported that:
"After two days of intensive talks with Lebanese leaders and rival factions, including Hezbollah leader Sayyad Hassan Nasrallah, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabr al-Thani, and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, (they) left Beirut at dawn Thursday, saying they were suspending the mediation attempts."
The previous day, Saudi Arabia also pulled out, warning that Lebanon could be partitioned. On January 20, Davutoglu said Lebanese parties weren't close to an agreement, adding that he's willing to help forge a new approach to avoid unrest. Everything so far is in flux, leaving Lebanon stabilized without resolution.
In his January 21 Daily Start op-ed headlined, "What Hezbollah might face once the trial begins," University of Otago, New Zealand Professor William Harris said:
"We know....almost certainly (persons) aligned with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran" will be named, but unclear whether Syrian or Iranian figures will be indicted.
Individuals, not nations or political groups will be named. Nonetheless, believes Harris, "the consequences for (Hezbollah) longer term may be catastrophic." If its members are convicted, "it is difficult to see how the party could thereafter take part in Lebanese official business as if nothing had happened...."
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