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On February 8, Stratfor's George Friedman offered his latest assessment, explaining, of course, that decades of peace followed four wars. In 1973, Israel nearly lost the last one, and might have without emergency US aid. After Camp David, however, and especially under Mubarak, Israel no longer was thought threatening Egypt's national interests.
Decades later, "the world has changed." Earlier warriors are now old. "Today's Egyptian military trains with the Americans" and relies on US weapons and aid. However, "Mubarak has locked the younger generation....out of senior command positions and away from the wealth his generation has accumulated. They want him out."
Moreover, the idea of Mubarak's son, Gamal, succeeding him "was the last straw." Other factors are important as well. Though street protesters "are a real faction, (they) don't speak for the shopkeepers and peasants more interested in prosperity than wealth."
In addition, what's "going on now is a struggle within the military, between generations, for the future of the Egyptian military and therefore the heart of (its) regime. Mubarak will leave, the younger officers will emerge, the constitution will make some changes and life will continue."
As a result, Israel may become complacent. "They should not. The usual first warning of a heart attack is death." Those fortunate need dramatic life changes to survive. Egypt's uprising is more than "a mild coronary and (should be) treated with great relief by Israel that it wasn't worse," or at least not so far, but very likely it has legs.
Nonetheless, new forces in Egypt are emerging. Preserving peace is essential. Camp David "is the foundation of Israel's national security....The future of Gaza or the precise borders of a Palestinian state are trivial compared to preserving the treaty with Egypt" and retaining old order power under new leadership.
Israel is tiny. No matter how many previous wars it won, "it need only lose once to be annihilated." As a result, some believe its military strength is crucial. Friedman argues that it "should avoid rolling the dice too often, regardless of how strong it thinks it is."
It may need to reconsider its strategic position, and surely will have to if Egyptian events defy most analysts' predictions. Key is whether mass protests are sustained no matter what alternatives are proposed. Though rare, determined masses at times change the world. Egyptians only want their's changed and so far aren't relenting. Add another element as well. The whole world watches daily, offering global support.
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