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Events on the ground keep escalating dangerously. Anything may erupt anytime. Provocations are easy to stage.
Friday's incident may indeed become a casus belli. If not, perhaps something greater is planned to give Obama another war he wants. What better way to silence his Republican critics who call him soft on Assad.
On June 22, Foreign Policy 's associate editor Uri Friedman headlined "How would NATO respond to Syria shooting down a Turkish plane?" saying:
"Could this incident -- or an incident like it -- trigger more aggressive action against Syria by the international community? After all, Turkey is a member of NATO...."
Its Charter affirms its all-for-one-and-one-for-all policy. Attacking one member is considered acting against all 28. Collective self-defense is called for.
On September 12, 2001, NATO invoked Article V for the first time. Will Syria be number two? If Turkey claims Damascus acted aggressively, will war follow?
"It is not an entirely unreasonable" possibility, said Friedman.
In April, Erdogan suggested he might invoke Article V. Whether he plans it now remains to be seen.
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