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Aside from manipulated, misreported, falsified figures, Rasmus said analysis for the past four years showed "every spring quarter, April - June, job numbers are distorted and inflated" by the so-called "birth-death model" estimate of net non-reported jobs from new businesses minus losses from others no longer operating. The model, in fact, distorts every month, though perhaps more in Q II.
In each October - December period since 2008, BLS reported job losses, at the same time way understating them. Then in January - March, BLS reversed/manipulated the trend falsely. Inflated numbers, however, don't continue in the summer and fall.
Moreover, "(t)he longer term trend behind the annual (Q I - Q II) inflation, then decline in jobs, is a continuing (job creation) stagnation (ongoing) for at least the past three years." Deteriorating conditions now show a job market "triple dip....having already experienced a second" in summer 2010 when 600,000 were lost.
At issue is administration policy, letting private business create jobs, not government the way New Deal policies effectively worked. At the same time, corporate America's been hoarding cash because expected growth opportunities don't warrant investment.
Small businesses create half or more jobs during good times. However, they need bank loans to expand, but they're not forthcoming. In fact, since 2009, "big banks have been reducing lending to small businesses..almost every month."
As a result, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), "a small business trade group," says they "plan to reduce their hiring," not increase it. In fact, "NFIB's May report showed the worst hiring plans in eight months, trending down since last year and now turning negative - meaning more layoffs than hiring." Moreover, "78% of small businesses still think the US economy is in recession and expect it to continue for another year."
Bottom line:
-- corporate America isn't investing;
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