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The dual message was crafted presumably with the help of the inept folks who led the long assessment with the wrong conclusions -- functionaries like former CIA official Bruce Riedel and Ambassador Richard "we'll-recognize-success-when-we-see-it" Holbrooke. Never ones to pick a fight with beribboned four-stars, they probably repeated their mantra: the military knows best.
Next stop for Obama in deciding how to massage the message was to consult with his own inside group of political wheeler-dealers -- folks with long experience in Congress and in White House positions, such as chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, CIA Director Leon Panetta, former White House chief of staff John Podesta, and Joe Biden.
With the help of this brain trust, Obama settled on what he thought would be a win-win solution -- for his administration, if not for U.S. troops.
In the formal meeting on Nov. 29, Obama would get the top brass on record buying into the escalation and timetable. In other words, he would turn the tables on the generals, boxing them in for a change. According to Alter, the dialogue went like this:
Obama: "David [Petraeus], tell me now. I want you to be honest with me. You can do this in 18 months?"Petraeus: "Sir, I am confident we can train and hand over to the ANA (Afghan National Army) in that time frame."
Obama: "If you can't do the things you say you can in 18 months, then no one is going to suggest we stay, right?"
Petraeus: "Yes, sir, in agreement."
Mullen: "Yes, sir."
Obama then asked Defense Secretary Gates if he had any problems with the scenario, eliciting a response from Gates saying he was fine with the decision.
Obama: "I'm not asking you to change what you believe, but if you don't agree with me that we can execute this, say so now. Tell me now."
Mullen: "Fully support, sir."
Petraeus: "Ditto."
Am I the only one who finds that scene extraordinary?
Alter adds that as Biden walked with the President to the meeting, the Vice President asked if the new policy of beginning a significant withdrawal in 2011 was a direct Presidential order that could not be countermanded by the military. Obama said yes.
That response no doubt accounts for the assurance that Biden later gave at the end of an interview in his West Wing office: "In July 2011 you're going to see a whole lot of people moving out [of Afghanistan]. Bet on it. Bet on it."
I imagine that this is not the first foolish bet Joe Biden has made. How naà ¯ve for him and Obama to think that they had the generals boxed in and that the generals -- along with their powerful allies -- could not figure out some way to insist that a change in circumstance necessitated a longer time frame or additional resources.
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