In all of this world there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded superpower. Imagine the reaction here at home should Iran manage to sink even one US warship in the Persian Gulf, causing the death of a thousand American sailors. The pertinent fact that the Iranians were defending themselves will matter not at all. Suddenly every super patriot and demagogue in America will be hysterically screaming in unison for revenge. Jingoism and war fever will grip the land, all fueled by the US media. The phrase of the hour will be: "Victory at any cost!" In such a mood the peace movement will have little chance to influence events. The pressure to punish Iran will grow by the hour, pressure that a president with a policy of nuclear first-use may find irresistible. How ironic that a US air campaign launched for the said purpose of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons will have brought the world to the brink of their use.
Should the US cross the nuclear threshold in the Gulf all bets are off concerning our future. It would be like opening Pandora's box. If other states come to Iran's defense we will suddenly find ourselves in the tightest spot since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Even if we are lucky and avoid this, within days or weeks the exodus of governments from the NPT will likely become a stampede. A world wide scramble will be on to acquire the means to deter US aggression. Industrial countries like Japan and Germany could probably field nukes in a matter of months. As the world rearms the ugly mood will make current anti American sentiment seem mild, by comparison. Bush's use of nukes would also set the stage for another 911, possibly involving nuclear terrorism, with a predictable result: Overnight, America will become a police state. In such a world, chaotic beyond anything we've known, the peace movement's only recourse will be street action, huge demonstrations, and civil disobedience on a massive scale. But will it come too late? (See the Ellsberg interview at )
A Containment Strategy for Prevention
For all of these reasons, it is imperative that we prevent the next war. The US peace movement continues to grow, but to stop Bush we need a containment strategy of our own. This means reaching out beyond our shores. Due to Bush's profligate military spending, today the White House can only wage war by borrowing money. Why not appeal to the creditor governments of Japan, China, and even Saudi Arabia, among others, in the interests of peace? We should urge them to inform Bush they will not extend credit if the White House pursues another military adventure. This strategy might not work, but we will never know unless we try. One of our neighbors, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, has already warned Bush that the consequence of an attack on Iran will be an immediate spike in the price of oil. We should urge Chavez to send an even stronger message. If Bush and Cheney understand that they face a cut off of Venezuelan oil, so crucial to the US economy, perhaps they will think twice.
A final thought: After 911, though US military spending soared, our security became more elusive than ever. How can this be? The answer, if we were truly serious, would involve a candid look at the US role in world affairs: an unprecedented national debate about US foreign policy. Such a debate has never occurred in our nation's history, not even after the disastrous experience in Viet Nam. In fact, this is why we are in Iraq, today, and why even worse trouble looms ahead. It is a hackneyed cliche', but no less true, that when the lessons of history are not learned we are doomed to repeat them. Our problem in 2006 is that the world can no longer afford even a single miscalculation, lest we become irradiated flakes of ash on the wasted winds.
We must break the cycle of history, and with God's help we will succeed.
Mark Gaffney's book Dimona The Third Temple? (1989) was the first to explore the case of Mordechai Vanunu, the Israeli nuclear whistleblower. Mark's latest is Gnostic Secrets of the Naassenes. Mark can be reached for comment at mhgaffney@gnosticsecrets.com
For further lite reading:
US General Accounting Office (GAO): Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve Ship Cruise Missile Defense, GAO/NSIAD - 00 -149, July 2000. The entire report may be viewed at
Lt. Col. Phil Tissue et al, "Attacking the Cruise Missile Threat," Joint Forces Staff College, Joint and Combined Warfighting School, 8 September 2003. For download go to
Should the US cross the nuclear threshold in the Gulf all bets are off concerning our future. It would be like opening Pandora's box. If other states come to Iran's defense we will suddenly find ourselves in the tightest spot since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Even if we are lucky and avoid this, within days or weeks the exodus of governments from the NPT will likely become a stampede. A world wide scramble will be on to acquire the means to deter US aggression. Industrial countries like Japan and Germany could probably field nukes in a matter of months. As the world rearms the ugly mood will make current anti American sentiment seem mild, by comparison. Bush's use of nukes would also set the stage for another 911, possibly involving nuclear terrorism, with a predictable result: Overnight, America will become a police state. In such a world, chaotic beyond anything we've known, the peace movement's only recourse will be street action, huge demonstrations, and civil disobedience on a massive scale. But will it come too late? (See the Ellsberg interview at )
A Containment Strategy for Prevention
For all of these reasons, it is imperative that we prevent the next war. The US peace movement continues to grow, but to stop Bush we need a containment strategy of our own. This means reaching out beyond our shores. Due to Bush's profligate military spending, today the White House can only wage war by borrowing money. Why not appeal to the creditor governments of Japan, China, and even Saudi Arabia, among others, in the interests of peace? We should urge them to inform Bush they will not extend credit if the White House pursues another military adventure. This strategy might not work, but we will never know unless we try. One of our neighbors, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, has already warned Bush that the consequence of an attack on Iran will be an immediate spike in the price of oil. We should urge Chavez to send an even stronger message. If Bush and Cheney understand that they face a cut off of Venezuelan oil, so crucial to the US economy, perhaps they will think twice.
We must break the cycle of history, and with God's help we will succeed.
Mark Gaffney's book Dimona The Third Temple? (1989) was the first to explore the case of Mordechai Vanunu, the Israeli nuclear whistleblower. Mark's latest is Gnostic Secrets of the Naassenes. Mark can be reached for comment at mhgaffney@gnosticsecrets.com
For further lite reading:
US General Accounting Office (GAO): Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve Ship Cruise Missile Defense, GAO/NSIAD - 00 -149, July 2000. The entire report may be viewed at
Lt. Col. Phil Tissue et al, "Attacking the Cruise Missile Threat," Joint Forces Staff College, Joint and Combined Warfighting School, 8 September 2003. For download go to
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