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Life Arts    H2'ed 4/24/10

The world at 4oC: last call on climate

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Ward, P. D., 1994. The End of Evolution: On Mass Extinctions and the Preservation of Biodiversity. Bantam, New York.

Ward, P., 2007. Under a Green Sky: Global Warming, the Mass Extinctions of the Past, and What They Can Tell Us About Our Future. HarperCollins, NY, 135 pp.

Zachos, J., Pagani, M.N., Sloan, L., Thomas, E., 2001. Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present. Science 292, 686-693.

Zachos, J.C, Dickens, G.R.; Zeebe, R.E., 2008. An early Cainozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics. Nature 451 7176: 27983.


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Land (NASA/GISS) and ocean (NOAA) mean annual temperature anomalies for the period 2000-2009 relative to 1951-1980. Anomalies smoothed over 250 km. Note: (1) warming by up to 4 degrees Celsius over parts of the Arctic and west Antarctica; (2) warming of continental mid-latitude dry zones, including central Australia, by about 2 degrees C; (3) warming of large parts of ocean surfaces by up to 1.0 degrees C. Grey areas have no data. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/


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The relations between atmospheric CO2-equivalent (including the radiative forcing of methane) and mean global temperature, according to Charney's climate sensitivity parameter of 3 +/- 1.5 degrees C per doubling of CO2 (Hansen et al., 2007, 2008) (IPCC-2007). The red crosses represent recent CO2-temperature relations based on CO2-alkenone (resistant organic compounds contained in phytoplankton) proxy (Pagani et al., 2010). The Red circle represents estimates of climate sensitivity as a function of longer term vegetation and ice sheet changes (Lunt et al. 2010).


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[Figure3b]]

Proxy and model-based paleo-temperature and paleo-albedo maps for the Northern hemisphere mid-Pliocene (3.02.8 million years ago) (Chandler, 1997).

  1. Mean global paleo-temperatures relative to the present.

  2. Albedo maps comparing the mid-Pliocene with the present. Note the reduced polar caps and expansion of savanna in Africa in the mid-Pliocene, of significance in relation to pre-historic human migration, and expansion of deserts in modern times.


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Projected impact of climate change. UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. 2008. Note consequences at 4 degrees C, including decreased water availability and failing crops in temperate zones, increased extreme weather events and feedbacks leading to abrupt shifts in the climate system.


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Vulnerable carbon pools in the 21st century. Note the over 1000 billiobn tons (GtC) scale of methane deposits in permafrost and peat lands. Photograph shows burning methane released from an ice covered lake. click here

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Dr. Andrew Glikson is a visiting fellow at the Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, and author of numerous research articles on asteroid impacts and mass extinctions, early evolution of life on earth, and (more...)
 
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