First, it could take up to two weeks to certify the results and seat Brown. That is more than enough time for Democrats to unite behind a compromise bill, have it scored by the CBO and rush it through congress for a vote with Coakley still representing Massachusetts. For Democrats, that is the best case scenario if Coakley loses. The problem with this scenario is it has two dependencies that could fail, the speed of the certification, and the ability of Democrats to speedily produce and vote on a final bill.
If the above could not be done in time, the Democrats could still get a bill passed if House Democrats agreed to the entire Senate bill. The senate has already voted on this bill and I don't believe it would be required for them to vote on it again. This would be an ugly scenario. There are many issues with the Senate version of the Health Care Reform bill and many Democrats, myself included, have hopes that those issues can be rectified in a final bill.
It is beyond the Health Care Reform bill where we see the maximum effect of a potential Coakley loss in Mssachusetts. A Republican victory would probably derail most of the rest of the Obama agenda. Republican senators have exhibited disciplined solidarity in their opposition to President Obama and the Democrats thus far in Obama's term. There could very well be no progress on immigration reform, Gay rights and a host of other issues. Items of spending and other budgetary measures could still be passed through reconciliation.
The loss could be the beginning of a long Democratic slide that culminates in a loss of the congress in November and perhaps even a loss of the White House in 2012.
If Coakley loses, regardless of circumstances the single thought permeating American politics will be, if Democrats cannot win in Massachusetts, where can they win?
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