There were 5.8 million voters in the 2008 Democratic Primary and 2.7 million in 2004. That's 3.1 million "net new" Democratic primary voters for 2008. (Source CNN 2004, 2008)
These four critical swing states all went Republican in the last two presidential elections. But they show a pattern similar to the trend begun in the mid and southeastern Atlantic states. These primaries saw 5.8 million Democratic primary voters compared to 3.9 million Republicans. The Democrats more than doubled their 2004 primary voter total, 2.7 million voters, to 5.8 million in 2008. That's a 3.1 million increase in Democratic primary voters. These figures are in line with the mid and southeastern Atlantic states.
The critical factor is that these "net new" Democratic primary voters were not turned away from the polls by the traditional election fraud strategies. They're on record as voting in the most recent election, and they're highly likely to turnout for the general election, without any real impediments to vote. It's axiomatic that primary voters do just that.
Newly Registered Voters Increase Substantially But They're Not Enough
One more factor to consider is voter registration in these states. There were major voter registration drives in the southeastern Atlantic states. The least likely Obama state, South Carolina, has seen 240,000 newly registered voters. That figure could approach 300,000. North Carolina has 600,000 new registered voters with 48% Democrats, 21% Republicans, and 31% Independents. There's a strong tilt toward black voters and the 18-24 age group. Georgia voter registration drives have been intense as well. A pattern similar to North Carolina is emerging in Georgia with one county, Bibb, reporting a 20% increase in black voter registration compared to 1% for whites. Of Georgia's 400,000 newly registered, there's an almost even split between black and white registrants.
Adding Maryland and Delaware, these states have about 1.7 million newly registered voters. They also have 3.1 million "net new" 2008 Democratic primary voters.
Virginia is now a key swing state. Northern Virginia and the state's major cities statewide are solidly Democratic. Overall, Virginia has 300,000 newly registered voters with 42% under 24 years of age. Ohio has over 660,000 newly registered voters, with 19% living in counties that Kerry won (140,000) and 1% in Bush counties (5,000). There are almost 800,000 new voters in Florida and Democrats predominate, trailed by Republicans, and Independents. The youth vote of registered voters has increased from 4% in 2000 to 14% in 2008. Missouri will have over 200,000 newly registered voters.
Combined, these swing states have about 2.0 million newly registered voters and 3.1million "net new" 2008 Democratic primary voters.
These registration trends, particularly in the critical swing states, offer some hope regarding election fraud. Somewhere around 65% of newly registered voters actually turn out to vote. But they're not enough to solidify a majority victory in the reported vote count for the majority voting.
The Net New Democratic Primary Voters Represent the Ultimate Election Protection
Voter registration in the swing states and throughout the country are up significantly and they favor Sen. Obama's candidacy. But there were also significant increases in voter participation and new registrations from 2000 to 2004 with an emphasis on the youth and minority voters. This is very good news since it shows an expansion of citizens exercising their fundamental rights. The 2008 shifts in demographics in the newly registered will benefit Obama's campaign. However, this is an existing trend, not a new wave of voters who can be assured of voting; voters who face few if any impediments getting into the voting booth.
It is those extraordinary increases in primary voting that represent the new element in the election process. These voters were not seen in the 2004 primary. They were on the rolls for the 2008 primary and, without question, eligible for the 2008 general election. Who are they? We don't know for sure but the simple answer is, they're citizens who were motivated enough to vote in this primary cycle, elections frequently ignored by large numbers of voters.
The swing states had 3.1 million net new primary voters in 2008 and an aggregate 2.0 million increase in newly registered voters. There may be some overlap but the primaries took place at the start of the year in these states and the registration drives for the general election took off after the primaries. So they should be viewed as largely discrete figures.
These net new primary voters create problems for election thieves. If we assume a 20% turnout increase in the four swing states considered, that comes to a total of 23 million voters. The 3.1 million net new primary voters represent 14% of that total. They can all vote. They're all registered and they all voted in the most recent election. They can't be turned away easily. They will be unlikely to become confused or intimidated by the traditional voter suppression tricks.
The only fraud strategies available are through electronic voting machines and outright changes in vote totals. Thus, with fewer tools (disenfranchisement and suppression are out for this group), election fraud would need wipe out 14% of the estimated vote.
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