Sammon also didn't weigh the obvious possibility that the crafty bin Laden might have understood that his "endorsement" of Kerry over Bush would achieve the opposite effect with the American people.
Indeed, many right-wing pundits appear to have played into bin Laden's hands by promoting his anti-Bush diatribe just he wanted, as a de facto recommendation that Americans vote for Kerry - and thus a sure way to generate votes for Bush.
Bush himself recognized this fact. "I thought it was going to help," Bush said in a post-election interview with Sammon about bin Laden's videotape. "I thought it would help remind people that if bin Laden doesn't want Bush to be the President, something must be right with Bush."
So how hard is it to figure out that bin Laden - a longtime student of American politics - would have understood exactly the same point?
Briar Patch
Many American baby-boomers grew up watching Walt Disney's "Song of the South," featuring Uncle Remus tales describing how the clever Brer Rabbit escaped one famously tight spot by pretending that what he feared most was to be hurled into the briar patch - when that was exactly where he wanted to go.
Indeed, the evidence is now clear that al-Qaeda strategists have long operated in much the same way, trying to goad the U.S. government into an overreaction that would put them in an environment where they could be most successful. [See Consortiumnews.com's "Osama's Briar Patch" or "Is Bush al-Qaeda's 'Useful Idiot?'"]
At the height of Campaign 2000, al-Qaeda took aim at another American target, the destroyer USS Cole, as it docked in the port of Aden. On Oct. 12, 2000, al-Qaeda operatives piloted a small boat laden with explosives into the Cole's hull, blasting a hole that killed 17 crew members and wounded another 40.
Back in Afghanistan, bin Laden anticipated - and desired - a retaliatory strike. He hoped to lure the United States deeper into a direct conflict with al-Qaeda, which would enhance his group's reputation and - assuming a clumsy U.S. response - would radicalize the region's Muslim populations.
Bin Laden evacuated al-Qaeda's compound at the Kandahar airport and fled into the desert near Kabul and then to hideouts in Khowst and Jalalabad before returning to Kandahar where he alternated sleeping among a half dozen residences, according to the 9/11 Commission Report.
But lacking hard evidence proving who was behind the Cole bombing, President Bill Clinton didn't order a retaliatory strike, leaving bin Laden deeply frustrated. Eventually, U.S. intelligence reached a conclusion that the attack was "a full-fledged al-Qaeda operation" under the direct supervision of bin Laden.
However, in January 2001, George W. Bush took office and wanted nothing to do with Clinton's assessment that al-Qaeda ranked at the top of the U.S. threat list. From his opening days in office, Bush rebuffed the recommendations from almost anyone who shared Clinton's phobia about terrorism.
On Jan. 31, 2001, just 11 days after Bush's Inauguration, a bipartisan terrorism commission headed by former Sens. Gary Hart and Warren Rudman unveiled its final report, warning that urgent steps were needed to prevent a terrorist attack on U.S. cities.
"States, terrorists and other disaffected groups will acquire weapons of mass destruction, and some will use them," the report said. "Americans will likely die on American soil, possibly in large numbers." Hart specifically noted that the nation was vulnerable to "a weapon of mass destruction in a high-rise building."
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