Things can go horribly wrong in a year. He has to please the world by taking on Al Qaeda in the Tribal Areas and be seen as winning rather than losing territory to Osama bin Laden. External support is important for the economy which has done well but needs a good non-isolationist foreign policy to take off. Foreign capitals that matter economically to Pakistan are not yet decided if they should condemn the emergency and abandon him as the leader that suits them. The yardstick is Pakistan’s unambiguous response to Al Qaeda: President Musharraf can face serious domestic challenges if he loses external support. After an uninterrupted run of non-victories, he now needs victories in the next two months.
To win against Al Qaeda, he has to have more political support at home. The PPP can provide him with it because it doesn’t fear its vote bank, as opposed to the ruling PMLQ which will not verbalise too much against Al Qaeda for fear of losing its votes to PMLN and Jamaat-e-Islami. One year more out of power can make the PPP impatient. Under his PCO, the president can change the Constitution to allow Ms Bhutto to become prime minister for the third time, but her party will chafe at the bit if the January polls are postponed and the PMLQ gets a free hand. Two things have to be done: aim at holding the polls in January, and meet the challenge of Al Qaeda in the Tribal Areas. If this is not done, General Musharraf’s diminishing utility will cut short his longevity.
To win against Al Qaeda, he has to have more political support at home. The PPP can provide him with it because it doesn’t fear its vote bank, as opposed to the ruling PMLQ which will not verbalise too much against Al Qaeda for fear of losing its votes to PMLN and Jamaat-e-Islami. One year more out of power can make the PPP impatient. Under his PCO, the president can change the Constitution to allow Ms Bhutto to become prime minister for the third time, but her party will chafe at the bit if the January polls are postponed and the PMLQ gets a free hand. Two things have to be done: aim at holding the polls in January, and meet the challenge of Al Qaeda in the Tribal Areas. If this is not done, General Musharraf’s diminishing utility will cut short his longevity.
The End
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