In fact, while the African political leadership in 1980 was talking about peace and development after a particularly brutal guerilla war in Zimbabwe Mr. Mugabe had other plans. Politically cunning and self-opinionated Mr. Mugabe was and is something of a political enigma from the start of his career as a guerilla leader.
Raised and educated as a Roman-Catholic Mr. Mugabe became a committed Marxist during the guerrilla war against the Rhodesian Front government of Ian Smith. Taking power on a wave of popular support his early political promises of reconciliation and democracy were later overtaken by a strong authoritarian streak and a deep distrust of opposition.
Born in 1924, Robert Gabriel Mugabe was educated in missionary schools and received the first of his seven degrees from South Africa's Fort Hare University. Returning to Rhodesia in 1960 he joined Joshua Nkomo's Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU) but left three years later to form the rival Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU).
Jailed without trial for 10 years he left Rhodesia for neighboring Mozambique in 1974 and led the largest of the guerrilla forces fighting a protracted and bloody war against the Smith government. After months of negotiations the 1979 Lancaster House agreement set the seal on a Rhodesian peace deal and Mr. Mugabe returned home to a rapturous welcome from black supporters.
He initially built a coalition government with Mr. Nkomo, whose ZAPU forces had also fought the Smith government, but the discovery of a large arms cache at ZAPU-owned houses led to Mr. Nkomo's dismissal from government. In recent years Mr. Mugabe has become an increasingly outspoken nationalist, lashing out at the 75,000 white Zimbabweans and their alleged foreign backers for his country's economic collapse. Mr. Mugabe has made much of his devout Christianity, but his marriage to a former private secretary in 1996 - 41 years his junior and with whom he already fathered two children - raised more than a few eyebrows.
At the same time he has pursued what he regards as a deeply moral campaign against homosexuality making "unnatural sex acts" illegal with a penalty of up to 10 years in prison.
So what is the prognosis about Zimbabwe’s future and the way forward?
For starters the theft of the elections will be most obvious to the international and African communities. But Mr. Mugabe and his cronies in power could care less what the world thinks since the country’s credibility has already been shattered by Mr. Mugabe’s antics. Next, Zimbabwe’s ruling elite will do everything to keep their man in power since they have amassed their ill-gotten gains under his rule. Most of their riches and landholdings are in Zimbabwe so they cannot just simply pack up and move out; they are trapped in Zimbabwe whether they like it or not so keeping Mr. Mugabe in power is in their immediate and future interests.
The alternative is simply to wait a bit more. Already social issues are making the ability of Mr. Mugabe and his government impossible to rule. This inability of the ruling class to rule is the result of a social dynamic that Mr. Mugabe cannot control. One such dynamic is a runaway inflation that is pegged to reach about 500,000% in June this year. This will have an enormous negative social impact – one that could cause a wave of public mass unrest that can precipitate the end of the Mugabe Era.
This impossibility of normal life across the board that will be accompanied by high interest rates, higher food prices and other factors that Mr. Mugabe cannot manipulate but will bring with them increased suffering for ordinary Zimbabweans. But perhaps this will be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back and allow ordinary Zimbabweans to do extraordinary things like united across all tribal, ethnic and social lines and kick Mr. Mugabe unceremoniously from office.
Still, there is one inherent danger in this scenario: that the social and political fabric already weakened by the economic situation can degenerate into such lawlessness that Zimbabwe progresses negatively into a new version of Somalia with warlords and all. There is no easy way forward for Zimbabwe I’m afraid.
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