The new nuclear doctrine is the software, the new USSTRATCOM is the hardware, and Rumsfeld is the driver, for the "downsizing" program that is about to be launched. Brace yourself.
There have been many voices across the political spectrum calling for Rumsfeld's resignation for the botched Iraq war, yet he "retains the full confidence" of Bush. Why? Because Rumsfeld cannot be fired until he demolishes the "nuclear taboo" barrier, by detonating a small tactical nuclear weapon against a US enemy. The US military is reluctant to even consider the use of nuclear weapons against Iran, because it would provoke "an outcry over what would be the first use of a nuclear weapon in a conflict since Nagasaki"[2]. Only after a small tactical nuclear weapons strike against Natanz or another Iranian facility will such a barrier no longer exist for future US nuclear threats and uses, and Rumsfeld's transformation will be a fait accompli.
Why is "downsizing" the military so important to the PNAC crowd? Because the American public has no stomach for a draft nor large losses of American military personnel. If it becomes possible to wage war "on the cheap", without loss of American life, and in the process we can lower the price of oil and spread "liberty" across the world, opposition will be muted. Public opinion on the Iraq war was not turned by the enormous number of Iraqi lives lost (of which there isn't even an effort to keep a count), it is only affected by the number of American lives lost.
"The decision as to the employment of atomic weapons in the event of war is to be made by the Chief Executive when he considers such decision to be required" according to NSC 30 from 1948. According to the Goldwater-Nichols Act, the chain of command flows from the President through the Secretary of Defense to the geographic combatant commanders. If Gen. John Abizaid (CENTCOM commander) or Gen. James Cartwright (STRATCOM commander) ask authorization from President Bush to use nuclear weapons, following the guidelines in the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations, what will Bush's response be? As he often repeats, "I'm going to be listening to the people that know what they're talking about, and that's the commanders on the ground in Iraq. They'll make the decisions". The commanders on the ground will be driven by what they perceive to be the immediate military necessity, without regard to the larger issues such as the survival of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Congress will not be asked in advance to authorize the Iran war. Congress has already declared, in passing H.R.6198, that Iran should be held accountable "for its threatening behavior" (which merely consists in Iran's refusal to give up its rights under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty). The Iran war is likely to start with selected bombing of a few Iranian facilities. Recall that on October 3rd, 2002, over 5 months before the US invasion of Iraq, we learned that "Coalition forces this morning struck an Iraqi air defense center after a coalition plane in the area dropping leaflets was fired upon, defense officials said". On December 16, 1998, Clinton informed the American people that "Earlier today, I ordered America's armed forces to strike military and security targets in Iraq. They are joined by British forces. Their mission is to attack Iraq's nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs and its military capacity to threaten its neighbors". Neither of these operations, nor many other US military operations, were done with Congressional authorization.
Bush will threaten Iran with a massive attack if it responds to such a bombing. Iran will certainly respond, and Bush will proclaim that this constitutes Iranian "aggression" against the US, and that Iran has "chosen" war. It will be less farfetched than in the case of Iraq, where Bush stated shortly before the US invasion "war is upon us because Saddam Hussein has made that choice" (speech of March 6, 2003), and as the US was about to attack on March 17, 2003 "Should Saddam Hussein choose confrontation, the American people can know that every measure has been taken to avoid war". Once war with Iran has started, Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and their hand-picked nuclear advisors will find plenty of convenient "surprising military developments" to seize on to "justify" the use of nuclear weapons.
Consequences
The nuclear weapons that the administration is planning to use against Iran are low yield earth penetrating weapons expected to cause "reduced collateral damage". Their real purpose is not to destroy facilities that are too deep underground to be destroyed by conventional weapons: it is primarily to erase the nuclear taboo, and secondarily to shock-and-awe Iran into surrender.
Of course the potentially disastrous consequences of this action cannot be overestimated. Once the US has used its nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear country signatory of the NPT, the NPT will fall apart. Many more countries will strive to develop and test nuclear weapons, overtly or covertly, as North Korea has just done. With no longer a nuclear taboo many more countries will feel entitled to use their nuclear weapons in aggression against or to defend against aggression from nuclear and non-nuclear adversaries. Military conflicts inevitably lead to escalation, and they usually end only when one side prevails. That is not how a global nuclear conflict will end.
If the US attacks Iran and does not use nuclear weapons, it will incur military losses that will vastly outweigh any benefit of such war. If there is no Iran war, the Bush presidency will be remembered predominantly for the disastrous Iraq war. Crossing the nuclear threshold will overshadow all other events of the Bush presidency. To the (however unlikely) extent that it results in an advantage to America, Bush's achievement could conceivably be hailed by future generations. The "rational" choice for the administration is clear.
Like desperate gamblers in a losing streak, Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld have nothing to gain and everything to lose by not attacking Iran with nuclear weapons.
Why the November vote matters
On November 7th, 33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats will be contested. There are many reasons why even Republicans may wish that one or both Houses are won by Democrats, and the prospect of nuclear war should be a dominant one.
The President can legally order the use of nuclear weapons under any circumstance without asking Congress. However, Congress could block the authority of the President to order the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon countries by passing legislation under Article I, Sect. 8, Clause 14 of the Constitution to "make rules for the government and regulation" of the Armed Forces. If Congress passed such a law (see an example for a bill below [3]), it would in practice also impede a conventional attack on Iran. Congress may also find other ways to derail a presidential push towards using nuclear weapons, for example by demanding that the Administration publicly discloses plans or preparatory moves such as deployment of nuclear weapons in the Persian Gulf. Which Congress is more likely to do this, a Republican or a Democratic one?
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